Deere’s 2026 Outlook Suggests No Farm Economy Uptick

By Ryan Hanrahan

Bloomberg’s Michael Hirtzer and Matthew Griffin reported that “Deere & Co.’s weak forecast for the year ahead reinforces the difficulty in predicting a recovery in the U.S. farm economy as uncertainty continues to swirl over the impact of tariffs and trade deals.”

“Shares of the world’s biggest farm machinery maker fell as much as 5.7% in New York as the company’s first profit outlook for 2026 fell short of expectations. The forecast underscores how the agriculture sector remains in the dark even after a U.S. trade agreement resumes crop shipments to China,” Hirtzer and Griffin reported. “Farmers have been grappling with President Donald Trump’s tariff policies that squeezed demand and raised costs. While the recent deal with China is raising hopes, there’s still questions on whether the ramp-up of soybean and wheat sales will be enough to shake the U.S. farm economy out of a years-long slump.”

“‘Deere’s widely underwhelming 2026 guidance suggests a more severe and prolonged agricultural downturn than we initially anticipated, though it offers clarity on trough earnings this cycle,’ Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Chris Ciolino wrote in a report,” according to Hirtzer and Griffin’s reporting. “Deere said net income in the 2026 fiscal year will be between $4 billion and $4.75 billion. That misses the average Bloomberg estimate for $5.31 billion, and would be a drop from the $5.027 billion reported for the year just ended.”

“‘Our organization is used to managing cyclicality, but this year we faced an additional headwind of heightened uncertainty in a rapidly changing business environment,’ Chief Executive Officer John May said on a Wednesday call with investors,” Hirtzer and Griffin reported. “May said in a statement that Deere believes 2026 ‘will mark the bottom of the large ag cycle.’”

Ag Equipment Maker CNH Recently Trimmed Outlook

Reuters Abhinav Parmar reported in early November, “Farm and construction machinery maker CNH Industrial lowered its full-year profit forecast on Friday, as it intentionally scaled back production of tractors and combines to avoid a supply glut amid sluggish demand.”

“The company, which is famous for its Case IH and New Holland brands of tractors, said it produced fewer units in 2025 than a year earlier, and that, coupled with weaker sales, weighed on its margins,” Parmar reported. “Farm equipment manufacturers have been forced to scale back production as demand for new machinery remains muted, with lower crop prices and rising production costs prompting farmers to defer big-ticket purchases.”

“CNH now expects its 2025 adjusted profit to be 44–50¢ per share, compared with its previous forecast of 50–70¢. Analysts on average expect a full-year profit of 59¢, according to data compiled by LSEG,” Parmar reported. “‘The August 2025 expansion of steel and aluminum tariffs in the U.S. has created additional exposure for CNH,’ the company said. ‘We believe mitigation through global sourcing optimization and pricing actions could offset tariff headwinds over time, though short-term pressures persist,’ said Nazmi Ghazali, equity analyst at CFRA Research.”

Producers Struggling With Cash Flow as 2025 Comes to Close

AgWeb’s Rhonda Brooks reported that “across America’s heartland, most corn and soybean crops are harvested, combines have been put away, and farmers will gather with their families to enjoy the holidays ahead. But as farmers gather around dinner tables and give thanks for what they have, many are concerned about what they don’t have this fall: adequate cash flow.”

“That lack is the No. 1 issue facing farmers now, according to southeast Illinois farmer Sherman Newlin, who’s based in Crawford County,” Brooks reported. “‘I think these low prices are starting to take a toll on guys trying to meet their cash-flow needs,’ he says. For many farmers, Newlin believes the issue isn’t just about surviving until next spring — it’s about paying land rents, covering input bills coming due, and staying afloat right now.”

Deere’s 2026 Outlook Suggests No Farm Economy Uptick was originally published by Farmdoc.