Crop Tour Projects Record Corn Yields, USDA Data Shows Mixed Conditions

An annual crop tour of the Midwest wrapped up yesterday. Crop tour scouts reported record-breaking corn yields across the Corn Belt, despite concerns over some dry conditions and disease pressure, like that of southern rust, in some top states.

Here’s a look at the tour results for major corn-growing states, alongside the latest progress and condition ratings from USDA.

Ohio

Tour Results

Ohio was one of the first stops on the tour.

“Scouts on the first day of the tour projected the Ohio corn yield at 185.69 bushels per acre (bpa), above the tour’s 2024 average of 183.29 and the three-year crop tour average of 180.47 bpa,” Reuters reported on Monday. The data analyst for the tour said the projection was the highest for Ohio in records dating to 2003.

Dry conditions could skew potential, though. “We will need some additional rains to push this crop to the finish line,” said Lane Akre, an economist leading the tour’s eastern leg, according to Reuters. Akre cited cracks in the ground denoting dry conditions.

USDA Crop Progress and Conditions

The progress of the Buckeye State’s corn is mostly on track with or ahead of five-year averages, according to USDA. Only dented corn progress is behind the average pace for the state.

One percent of the crop has reached maturity.

Considering good or excellent corn, Ohio’s crop is in almost the worst condition of all top corn-growing states. Only Michigan had a lower percentage of good/excellent corn.

Overall, USDA rated Ohio’s corn as 10% excellent, 45% good, 31% fair, 13% poor, and 1% very poor.

South Dakota

Tour Results

Projections in South Dakota also came on the first day of the tour. Similar to Ohio, expectations are high.

“For South Dakota, the tour projected the corn yield at 174.18 bpa, up from 156.51 in 2024 and the three-year crop tour average of 144.13 bpa. The estimate was the tour’s highest for the state since its 2020 estimate of 179.24 bpa,” Reuters reported.

The outlet also reported muddy conditions encountered by scouts in some fields, which are expected to “bolster corn and soybean development in the weeks before harvest.”

USDA Crop Progress and Conditions

USDA said in its latest report that South Dakota’s corn crop is progressing ahead of schedule in all categories except maturity, which is level with the five-year average. 

None of the state’s corn has reached maturity yet.

As of the latest condition ratings, 77% of South Dakota’s corn was in good-to-excellent shape, according to USDA, ranking it better than the national average (71% good/excellent).

Overall, 27% of the state’s corn was rated excellent, 50% was rated good, 16% was rated fair, 5% was rated poor, and 2% was rated very poor.

Nebraska

Tour Results

Corn yield in Nebraska should be the highest of the last few years, based on the tour’s results. Scouts visited the Cornhusker State on the second day of the tour.

“Crop scouts projected Nebraska’s average corn yield at 179.50 bpa, above the 2024 tour average of 173.25 and the highest since the 2021 tour,” according to a report from Reuters Tuesday.

USDA Crop Progress and Conditions

Nebraska’s corn progress is trailing average in all categories, USDA reported earlier this week.

None of the corn crop in Nebraska has reached maturity.

With 77% corn in good or excellent condition, Nebraska’s corn was rated better than the national average as of Aug. 17. 

Overall, 27% of the crop was rated excellent by USDA, 50% was rated good, 19% was rated fair, 3% was rated poor, and 1% was rated very poor.

Indiana

Tour Results

Continuing the trend on the tour’s second day, Indiana farmers are expected to see a record-breaking yield come this fall, based on the tour’s scouting. 

“For Indiana, scouts projected an average corn yield of 193.82 bpa, the biggest in the tour’s records and an increase from the 2024 estimate of 187.54 bpa,” Reuters reported Tuesday.

USDA Crop Progress and Conditions

Indiana’s corn is progressing slightly behind the average pace in the silking and dough categories, but dented progress is ahead of the five-year average.

None of the crop in Indiana has reached maturity yet, which is on track with average.

As of Aug. 17, 63% of Indiana’s crop was in good/excellent shape, ranking its corn in the lower half of the top corn-growing states. 

Overall, USDA rated Indiana’s crop 11% excellent, 52% good, 26% fair, 8% poor, and 3% very poor. 

Illinois

Tour Results

The third day of the tour took scouts to Illinois. Although expected corn yield in Illinois is down year-over-year, it’s still a record-breaking projection. 

“The tour projected the Illinois corn yield at 199.57 bpa, down from 204.14 bpa in 2024, but the second-highest on tour records,” according to Reuters.

USDA Crop Progress and Conditions

The corn crop in Illinois is progressing just ahead of the five-year average in all categories except maturity, USDA said.

None of the crop in Illinois has reached maturity, which is level with the five-year average.

Only 63% of the corn in Illinois is in good or excellent shape, which is worse than the national average.

Overall, USDA rated Illinois corn as 17% excellent, 46% good, 26% fair, 7% poor, and 4% very poor.

Iowa

Tour Results

The corn yield estimate for Iowa is reportedly the highest in the tour’s 22-year data set.

“The tour projected the corn yield in Iowa, the biggest U.S. corn grower, at 198.43 bushels per acre, above the 2024 tour average of 192.79 bpa,” Reuters reported Thursday. 

Scouting in western Iowa, which took place on the third day of the tour, revealed threats of disease. 

“For corn, southern rust was so widespread in some Iowa fields that scouts emerged with sleeves covered in dusty orange-colored residue from rust spores on corn leaves,” Reuters reported. 

According to the outlet, it’s too soon to know the impact of the disease on yields. “The crop still needs another four to five weeks to finish (growing),” said Tim Gregerson, a Nebraska farmer on the tour, according to Reuters reporting.

USDA Crop Progress and Conditions

The progress of Iowa’s corn is just slightly behind average pace in all categories, according to USDA’s most recent Crop Progress report. 

None of the crop in Iowa has reached maturity.

With 86% of the corn crop rated good/excellent by USDA, Iowa has the best corn of all top growing states.

Overall, 30% of the crop was rated excellent, 56% was rated good, 11% was rated fair, 2% was rated poor, and 1% was rated very poor.

Minnesota

Tour Results

Finally, Minnesota’s corn yield, scouted on the last day of the tour, was projected at 202.86 bpa, a spike from 164.90 in 2024, according to Reuters. Like Iowa’s, Minnesota’s projection for corn was the highest in the tour’s 22-year data set.

“‘The Minnesota (corn) crop was way better than last year. It’s a good, solid crop, with plenty of moisture,” said Sherman Newlin, an analyst with Risk Management Commodities who was on the tour,” Reuters reported.

Scouts did report southern rust in some Minnesota corn.

USDA Crop Progress and Conditions

The progress of Minnesota’s corn crop is either behind or just meeting average pace, USDA reported this week. 

None of the crop has reached maturity.

Minnesota has slightly more corn in the good-to-excellent category than the national average.

Overall, the crop was rated as 23% excellent, 51% good, 19% fair, 5% poor, and 2% very poor by USDA.