Corn Booms, but Soybeans & Cotton Struggle in USDA Forecast

DAILY Bites

• Corn: Forecast at 16.8 billion bushels, up 13% from 2024; planted area at 98.7 million acres (+9% YoY); yields at 186.7 bushels/acre, with multiple states expected to hit record highs.

• Soybeans: Production at 4.30 billion bushels, down 2% from 2024; planted area at 81.1 million acres (-7% YoY); yields projected at 53.5 bushels/acre, with record yields in several states.

• Cotton: Output forecast at 13.2 million bales, down 8% from 2024; planted area at 9.3 million acres (-17% YoY); yields averaging 861 pounds/acre, below both last month and last year.

DAILY Discussion

Corn production is up, while soybean and cotton production is down from 2024, according to the Crop Production report issued today by U.S. Department of Agriculture’s National Agricultural Statistics Service. Corn production is up 13 percent from last year, forecast at 16.8 billion bushels; soybean growers are expected to decrease their production 2 percent from 2024, forecast at 4.30 billion bushels; cotton production is down 8 percent from 2024 at 13.2 million 480-pound bales.

Planted and harvested acreage estimates for corn, cotton, and soybeans were reviewed again this month based on all available data, including the latest certified acreage data from the Farm Service Agency. As a result, area planted to corn is estimated at 98.7 million acres, up from the previous estimate; area planted to soybeans is estimated at 81.1 million acres, up from the previous estimate; and area planted to cotton is estimated at 9.30 million acres, up from the previous estimate.

The average U.S. corn yield is forecast at 186.7 bushels per acre, down 2.1 bushels from last month’s forecast, but up 7.4 bushels from last year. The NASS forecasts record high yields in Georgia, Idaho, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Minnesota, South Carolina, South Dakota, Virginia, and Wisconsin. Acres planted to corn, at 98.7 million, are up 9 percent from 2024. Area to be harvested for grain is forecast at 90.0 million acres, up from last month, and 9 percent more than was harvested last year. As of Aug. 31, 69 percent of this year’s corn crop was reported in good to excellent condition, 4 percentage points above the same time last year.

Area for soybean harvest is forecast at 80.3 million acres, up from last month, but 7 percent less than was harvested last year. Planted area for the nation, estimated at 81.1 million acres, is down 7 percent from last year. Soybean yields are expected to average 53.5 bushels per acre, down from last month’s forecast, but up 2.8 bushels from 2024. If realized, the forecasted yields in Arkansas, Georgia, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, and Wisconsin will be record highs.

The NASS forecasts all cotton area to be harvested at 7.37 million acres, up from last month’s forecast, but 6 percent less acres than were harvested last season. Yield is expected to average 861 pounds per harvested acre, down 1 pound from last month’s forecast, and down 25 pounds from 2024. Area planted to all cotton is estimated at 9.30 million acres, down 17 percent from last year.

The NASS surveyed more than 7,600 producers across the country and conducted objective yield surveys for corn and soybeans in preparation for this report.