Cold Front Brings Chance for Snow Thanksgiving Week

Colder temperatures will settle in across the United States at the end of the week and continue into the week of Thanksgiving.  

For many states, this will be the first shift away from mild temperatures toward colder, seasonal conditions. According to a recent report from the Climate Prediction Center (CPC), the Northern Plains are at the highest risk for hazardous cold temperatures along with a slight risk for heavy snow in the Great Lakes region during the Thanksgiving travel period. 

States across the Midwest will see a pendulum swing from above-normal temperatures to slightly below normal. Temperatures were 10 degrees, and in some circumstances 20 degrees, above normal during October and into November. Dry conditions in October also made for efficient harvest progress. According to Illinois State Climatologist Trent Ford, that is coming to an end. 

“It’s going to be quite a change as a cold front sweeps through on the backside of a storm system,” Ford said. “There’s going to be places in the upper Midwest that will struggle to make it above freezing.” 

Risk for Frigid Temps

The CPC said some areas in the Northern Plains could see temperatures dip to -10 degrees below Fahrenheit, with even lower wind chill temperatures. Ford said people with livestock in these regions should take precautions and watch the forecast. However, colder air temperatures also lower soil temperatures and allow for effective nitrogen application. 

“When it comes to the effectiveness of nitrogen staying in the field for next spring, having temperatures that are sub-50 degrees but still above freezing can be beneficial,” Ford said. 

Precipitation Outlook 

There are also above-average chances for precipitation across the Midwest — especially in the Ohio Valley — as a low pressure system takes place during the week of Thanksgiving. This will continue to help to improve drought conditions  throughout the Midwest and in places of extreme drought, such as South Dakota and Ohio. However, Ford also noted that much of southern Illinois and Missouri are wet from heavy rains earlier in November, a stark shift from dry conditions in October. He said the swing from one extreme to the next is a pattern he’s noticed the past couple of years. 

“These areas are now working on their wettest November on record and had a top-five driest October,” Ford said. “So we go from famine to feast, with really nothing in between.” 

Thanksgiving Travel 

The CPC issued a 20-40% chance for heavy snowfall in the Great Lakes region and Interior Northeast from Nov. 27 to Dec. 3. This could pose issues for Thanksgiving travel, especially air travel, and Ford advised staying up-to-date on shifting conditions. The American Automobile Association (AAA) predicts a record 80 million Americans will travel for the holiday. While difficult to predict, Ford doesn’t count out the possibility for snow during the week of Thanksgiving for the Upper Midwest. 

“Given the temperature outlook and that we’re going to stay active with storm systems moving through the week of Thanksgiving, there is some chance for snowfall in the northern Midwest leading up to Thanksgiving and on Thanksgiving Day,” Ford said.