CoBank Forecasts U.S. Farm Acreage Shifts in 2025

With increasing prices and price competitiveness in the last few months, CoBank is forecasting corn to pull acres from soybeans, spring wheat, cotton, and grain sorghum across U.S. farms in 2025. 

The forecast is based on statistical regression analysis and conversations with U.S. cooperatives and merchandisers that market the major crops. Authored by Tanner Ehmke – lead economist for grains and oilseeds in CoBank’s Knowledge Exchange research division – the report projects the total U.S. planted acreage for major crops and outlines scenarios and global market dynamics that could impact how acres will be allocated in the weeks leading up to planting season.

Here’s how the report forecasted 2025 acreage to pan out for corn, soybeans, spring wheat, cotton, and sorghum.

Corn

For 2025, corn acres are expected to increase 4.2% to 94.55 million. It’s the only crop expected to increase rather than decrease in acreage with respect to 2024. 

Low hay prices are anticipated to shift acres out of corn harvested for silage to corn harvested for grain. If growers shift their acres as predicted, the acreage of corn harvested for grain in 2025 will rise 5.0% to 87.06 million acres.

Notably, the potential for trade disputes with both Mexico and Canada could negatively impact demand for U.S. corn and thus curb the increase in planted acreage.

Soybeans

Soybeans are expected to undergo the biggest loss of acreage nationwide, dropping from 87.10 million acres in 2024 to a forecasted 84.00 million acres in 2025. 

The loss of soybean acres will be offset by last fall’s increase of winter wheat acres, since those acres allow for double-crop soybeans behind winter wheat harvest.

The anticipated decrease in soybean acres could change in the next few weeks before planting begins. The potential for tariffs on used cooking oil imports from China and canola oil from Canada would increase soybean oil demand, which, in turn, would encourage farmers to hold on to soybean acres.

Spring Wheat

Wheat prices continue to struggle based on a strong dollar and higher U.S. supply following last year’s harvest, so spring wheat acres in the northern Plains are expected to drop 5.9% to 10.0 million acres. Most of those acres will go to corn, but some will go to soybeans.

Potential wheat crop losses in Russia and the U.S. may quickly change the market dynamics for wheat and impact predictions.

Cotton

With cotton prices struggling due to multiple factors, including growing concerns over the Chinese economy and increasing competition from Brazil, cotton acres are anticipated to tumble 7.8% to 10.3 million in 2025. 

The shift should be greater in the Southeast than in the Texas plains. Cotton growers in Texas shifted cotton acres to wheat and other fall forages for grazing cattle, which are currently trading at record highs.

Ultimately, a Chinese economic recovery or a shorter than expected Brazilian cotton crop may sustain cotton prices and acreage.

Sorghum

Grain sorghum acres are expected to plunge 9.5% to 5.7 million due to a lack of export demand, particularly by China. The country typically accounts for up to 95% of U.S. grain sorghum’s annual export. 

Still, livestock feeders are opting to include more grain sorghum in feed rations, and ethanol plants are using more sorghum in production. This higher domestic usage and the potential for a return of Chinese demand in light of historically low sorghum prices may buoy prices and sustain acreage.