China Buys No U.S. Soybeans as Brazil’s Supplies Surge

DAILY Bites

• China bought zero U.S. soybeans in September, the first monthly shutout since 2018, even as total imports climbed to 12.87 MMT, the second-highest on record.

• Brazilian shipments rose to 10.96 MMT (~85%) and Argentina to 1.17 MMT (~9%), as tariffs and seasonality steered buyers away from U.S. beans, Reuters reports.

• Despite the September freeze-out, year-to-date U.S. shipments to China are still up ~15.5%.

DAILY Discussion

China imported no U.S. soybeans in September, the first month since November 2018 that American shipments fell to zero, even as overall arrivals surged to one of the largest monthly tallies on record.

According to reporting from Reuters, customs data from China’s General Administration of Customs show total soybean imports reached 12.87 million metric tons in September, the second-highest monthly volume on record, underscoring how fully Chinese crushers leaned on South America during a period of steep tariffs and renewed trade friction.

Brazilian cargoes jumped almost 30 percent year over year to 10.96 million tons, supplying roughly 85 percent of China’s September needs, while shipments from Argentina rose about 92 percent to 1.17 million tons, close to 9 percent of the total.

Analysts say two forces drove the U.S. shutout: China’s higher tariffs on U.S. goods and the normal seasonal fade of “old-crop” U.S. beans that sometimes still trickle into China at this time of year.

For U.S. farmers, the timing is tough: September typically ushers in the prime export window for new-crop soybeans, particularly through the Gulf and the Pacific Northwest. With Brazil and Argentina covering Chinese crushers into November, the window for fresh U.S. sales narrows quickly unless trade talks unlock new buying. While headlines have hinted at momentum, concrete deals have not materialized.

There is a wrinkle in the year-to-date figures. Despite September’s freeze-out, Reuters says 2025 U.S. soybean imports into China still total about 16.8 million tons, up 15.5 percent from a year earlier thanks to purchases booked earlier this year. Even so, traders told Reuters that, without policy movement, U.S. exporters face thinner programs through winter as South America remains in the driver’s seat.

Looking ahead, several analysts quoted by Reuters warn of a potential February-April supply gap in China if Brazil’s new-crop loadings lag or old-crop stocks prove tighter than expected. That could open a narrow window for U.S. beans, but only if tariffs and politics allow it. 

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