China Buys Brazil Soy as U.S. Crop Still Faces 13% Tariff

By Ryan Hanrahan

Reuters’ Joe Cash, Ella Cao, and Ethan Wang reported that “China will suspend retaliatory tariffs on U.S. imports, including duties on farm goods, after last week’s meeting of the two countries’ leaders, Beijing confirmed on Wednesday, but imports of U.S. soybeans still face a 13% tariff.”

“The tariff commission of the State Council, or cabinet, will scrap duties of up to 15% imposed on some U.S. agricultural goods from November 10, while keeping levies of 10% introduced in response to President Donald Trump’s ‘Liberation Day’ duties,” Cash, Cao and Wang reported. “Investors on both sides of the Pacific were relieved when Trump met Chinese leader Xi Jinping in South Korea, easing fears that the world’s two largest economies might abandon talks to resolve a tariff war that has disrupted global supply chains.”

“The tariff cut nonetheless leaves Chinese buyers of U.S. soybeans facing tariffs of 13%, a cost traders said makes U.S. shipments still too expensive for commercial buyers, compared to Brazilian alternatives,” Cash, Cao and Wang reported. “‘We don’t expect any demand from China to return to the U.S. market with this change,’ said one trader at an international trading company. ‘Brazil is cheaper than the United States and even non-Chinese buyers are taking Brazilian cargoes.’”

“After the meeting, the White House said China would purchase at least 12 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans in the last two months of 2025 and at least 25 million tons in each of the next three years,” Cash, Cao and Wang reported. “Beijing has yet to confirm those figures, and traders are watching closely for signs of large-scale purchases.”

China Buys Brazil Soybean Cargoes for December Shipment

Reuters’ Naveen Thukral and Ella Cao reported that “Chinese soybean importers have stepped up purchases of Brazilian cargoes in recent days as South American prices eased on expectations a U.S.-China trade deal will lead to a resumption of U.S. sales to the world’s largest soybean importer.”

“Buyers have booked 10 cargoes of Brazilian soybeans for December shipment and 10 for March-July with South American prices now quoted below offers being made for U.S. cargoes, three traders said on Monday,” Thukral and Cao reported. “Brazilian soybeans had traded at higher prices than U.S. supplies in recent weeks as steep Chinese tariffs curbed demand for U.S. beans. ‘Brazil is now cheaper than U.S. Gulf, and buyers are taking this opportunity to book cargoes,’ said a trader at an international company that runs oilseed processing plants in China. ‘We are seeing increased demand for Brazilian beans since last week.’”

“Brazilian beans for December shipment are quoted at a premium of $2.25-$2.30 over the January Chicago contract, as compared with $2.40 per bushel being offered for U.S. beans to be shipped from U.S. Gulf Coast, traders said,” according to Thukral and Cao’s reporting.

Tracking Chinese Purchases Tough During Shutdown

AgWeb’s Tyne Morgan reported that Kansas State University’s Allen “Featherstone cautions that verifying China’s purchases will be more difficult due to the ongoing U.S. government shutdown, which has delayed USDA export reporting.”

“‘Tracking will be important,’ he says. ‘Last week they purchased three vessels — about 180,000 metric tons. There are sources besides the government, but certainly not having the government data is a problem,’” Morgan reported. “Without weekly USDA export reports, private-sector analysts are relying on commercial shipping data and trade wire confirmations to track shipments. Economists warn that these unofficial estimates often vary widely, adding uncertainty to market reactions.”

China Buys Brazil Soy as U.S. Crop Still Faces 13% Tariff was originally published by Farmdoc.