Argentina Grains Exchange Cuts Soybean Forecast by a Million Tons

By Maximilian Heath

BUENOS AIRES, March 20 (Reuters) – A leading grains exchange in Argentina cut its forecast for the country’s 2024/2025 soybean crop by a million metric tons on Thursday as the impact of a drought becomes clearer.

The Buenos Aires exchange now sees the crop’s output hitting 48.6 million tons, down from its forecast of 49.6 million tons published last week.

Argentina is the world’s largest exporter of soybean oil and meal.

The exchange said the smaller than expected output was due to a drought that has reduced yields in the country’s northeast.

“High temperatures and the prolonged water deficit have caused heat and water stress, primarily affecting the NEA (northeastern Argentina),” the exchange said in its weekly crop report.

“These adverse conditions have significantly impacted plant stands and the growth of reproductive structures, reducing yield potential by 22%,” the exchange added.

About 10% of Argentina’s total area sown with soybeans is in the northeast, or about 1.86 million hectares (4.60 million acres).

Regarding the 2024/25 corn crop, the exchange said the drought, which is also affecting northwestern Argentina and the northern part of Cordoba province, “has led to a 40% drop in expected yields compared to the previous estimate.”

However, because of a technical adjustment which saw the estimate of the area planted with corn this season growing 7.6% to 7.1 million hectares, the exchange held its harvest forecast for the cereal at 49 million tons.

Argentina is the world’s third-largest corn exporter.

(Reporting by Maximilian Heath; Writing by Brendan O’Boyle; Editing by Kylie Madry and Sandra Maler)