AgRural Cuts Brazil’s 2024/25 Soy Crop Forecast Citing Drought

By Roberto Samora

SAO PAULO, March 24 (Reuters) – Brazilian farmers, who have harvested most of their soybean fields across the nation, are set to produce 165.9 million metric tons in the 2024/25 season, 2.3 million tons less than previously forecast, consultancy AgRural said on Monday.

AgRural said that a drought in southern Brazil, impacting mainly Rio Grande do Sul state, has affected the supply outlook in the country, the world’s biggest producer and exporter of the oilseed.

Rio Grande do Sul’s crop is now seen reaching 15 million tons, a cut of 3 million tons compared to a February forecast, and fresh downward revisions are possible as dry and hot weather persists in the region.

“We see reports of significant drops in yields,” AgRural analyst Alaide Ziemmer said. “Fresh cuts may happen. When we made the forecast on March 17, the expectation for some areas was that it would rain, and it did not.”

Ziemmer noted, however, that potential downward revisions to production in Grande do Sul – where the quality of grains has also been a concern – would not prevent Brazil from harvesting a record crop this season.

The forecast reductions have been mitigated by Mato Grosso’s performance, as Brazil’s top grain producing state has been favored by positive weather conditions this season.

Mato Grosso alone should produce 49.5 million tons in 2024/25, which would be more than the entire crop of Argentina, typically the world’s third-largest producer, where output is forecast to hit 48.6 million tons.

“Mato Grosso had record yields and the planted area grew by 357,000 hectares,” Ziemmer noted.

AgRural kept its forecast for the second corn crop in Brazil’s center-south unchanged at 87.9 million tons, but irregular rainfall in some states has been causing concern, according to the analyst.

Brazil’s second corn crop is planted after soybeans are harvested in the same areas, and represents about 75% of national production in a given year.

Farmers in the South American country had harvested 77% of the area planted with soybean by late last week, above last year’s 69%, AgRural said.

Second-corn planting has been concluded in the center-south. The consultancy pegged Brazil’s total corn production this season at 121.8 million tons, slightly above the 121.2 million tons it had estimated last month.

(Reporting by Roberto Samora; Writing by Ana Mano and Gabriel Araujo; Editing by Kirsten Donovan)