Turkey farmers brace for disease, market shifts before holidays

DAILY Bites

• Disease pressures rising as Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza and Avian Metapneumovirus strain U.S. turkey flocks, cutting production and complicating recovery

• Production at historic lows with USDA reporting just 195 million turkeys raised in 2025, the lowest level in 40 years and driving tighter supplies

• Higher prices for shoppers with wholesale turkey prices up about 40% from 2024, though supplies should still meet Thanksgiving demand

DAILY Discussion

As Thanksgiving approaches, turkey farmers across the United States are contending with mounting disease pressures and economic challenges that could impact both production levels and prices at the grocery store.

After a relatively quiet summer, Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza is once again being detected in turkey flocks, particularly in the Upper Midwest. The virus has had a major impact on the turkey industry since 2022, affecting about 18.7 million turkeys — roughly 10% of all birds impacted by the outbreak. So far in 2025, 2.2 million turkeys have been affected.

While only seven detections were reported between June and September 1, affecting just over 428,000 birds, fall migration has dramatically changed the outlook. In September alone, 15 detections in North Dakota, South Dakota, Minnesota, and Wisconsin affected 3.75 million birds, including more than 606,000 turkeys.

“We had very few detections throughout the summer,” said American Farm Bureau Federation Economist Bernt Nelson. “If you looked at June, there was just a couple detections, none in July, and just a couple in August to kind of round out the month. But now, as we’ve gotten into September, cases have started to pick back up again. There have been 15 additional detections in September. This has affected about three-and-three-quarter million birds.”

In addition to HPAI, turkey farmers are also grappling with Avian Metapneumovirus, a highly contagious respiratory illness that spread rapidly across the U.S. in 2024. The National Turkey Federation estimated that 60-80% of turkey flocks were impacted last year. While less lethal than HPAI, AMPV reduces egg production, complicating efforts to replenish lost flocks.

The combined effect of HPAI and AMPV is reflected in production data. According to U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Turkeys Raised Report, released September 26, just 195 million turkeys were raised in 2025 — a 3 percent decline from 2024 and the lowest level in 40 years. Production has fallen by 36 percent since its peak in 1996.

Nelson noted the long-term decline: “Now this number came in estimated at 195 million turkeys raised in 2025. This is down about three percent from 200 million turkeys raised in 2024. Now, if we look a little bit further back, this is down 16 percent from about 10 years ago, and 35 percent from the peak of the report, which had about 301 million turkeys being raised in 1996.”

USDA forecasts total 2025 turkey production at 4.84 billion pounds, a drop of 5 percent from last year and 11 percent from 2023. The decrease reflects the dual pressures of disease and declining demand.

Even as production contracts, turkey demand has trended lower compared to past decades. USDA projects that 4.49 billion pounds of turkey will be consumed or exported in 2025, down 12 percent from 2015. Still, Thanksgiving remains the biggest demand driver: Americans are expected to eat about 46 million turkeys, or 1.4 billion pounds on the holiday alone.

International trade remains relatively steady. Imports are expected to reach 36 million pounds in 2025, with most coming from Canada, Chile, and Mexico. Exports are forecast at 417 million pounds, 14 percent below 2024 levels, largely due to falling domestic production. Mexico remains the largest customer, accounting for about three-quarters of U.S. turkey exports.

The net effect of tighter supply is higher prices. USDA projects the national average composite wholesale price for frozen whole hen turkeys at $1.32 per pound in 2025, up 40 percent from last year.

Nelson explained, “It shouldn’t have a major impact going forward on the prices as we get closer to Thanksgiving. I think you’ll see a little bit more consistency. The prices are definitely higher than last year. We see that uptick right now in the wholesale price by about 40 percent, so we’ll definitely see some price increases there, but I don’t think they’re going to go a whole lot higher above where they are at.”

Despite the increase, Farm Bureau economists stress that turkey remains more affordable than it was several years ago. “It’s important to remember prices are still 32 percent lower than just three years ago,” Nelson wrote in Market Intel.

Farm leaders emphasize that, while prices may be higher, there will be enough birds for holiday shoppers. AFBF President Zippy Duvall said, “Poultry farmers have demonstrated their resiliency in facing down challenges, but rising supply costs, trade disputes and avian illnesses have all taken their toll. Despite that, poultry remains one of the most affordable sources of protein and you can bet turkey farmers are ensuring birds will be available for this year’s Thanksgiving dinner.”

The American Farm Bureau Federation’s annual Thanksgiving dinner survey, which provides shoppers with a snapshot of holiday meal costs, will be released on November 19.