3 Big Things Today, Aug. 28, 2025

1. Wheat Again Lower in Overnight Trading

Wheat futures were again pressured overnight amid increased global production and as the U.S. harvest continues. 

Output globally in the 2025/2026 marketing year was forecast earlier this month by the U.S. Department of Agriculture at 806.9 million metric tons. 

If realized, that would be up from the 799.9 million tons produced a year earlier. 

Russian wheat production is now projected at 83.5 million metric tons versus 81.6 million tons in the previous marketing year, USDA data shows. 

Consultancy IKAR earlier this week raised its outlook for Russian wheat output to 86 million metric tons from a previous forecast for 85.5 million tons. 

Dry weather the next few days should allow U.S. farmers to harvest more of their spring wheat. 

About 53% of spring wheat was in the bin at the start of the week, up from 36% a week earlier and just behind the prior five-year average of 54%, USDA said. 

The U.S. winter wheat harvest is all but finished with 98% collected as of Sunday, USDA said. 

Wheat for September delivery lost 1½¢ to $5.22¾ a bushel, while Kansas City futures dropped 2¼¢ to $5.10¾ a bushel. 

Corn futures for December delivery rose ½¢ to $4.06¼ a bushel. 

Soybean futures for November delivery were unchanged at $10.47½ a bushel. Soymeal was down 20¢ to $288 a short ton and soybean oil lost 0.01¢ to 53.14¢ a pound.

2. Ethanol Production Drops to Three-Month Low

Ethanol output fell to the lowest level in three months while stockpiles declined narrowly, according to data from the Energy Information Administration. 

Production averaged 1.07 million metric tons in the seven days that ended on Aug. 22, the agency said in a weekly report. 

That’s down from 1.072 million tons a week earlier and the lowest since May 23. 

In the Midwest, by far the biggest producing region, output declined narrowly to an average of 1.017 million barrels per day from 1.018 million the previous week, EIA said. 

That’s the lowest for the region since June 27. 

Gulf Coast output averaged 22,000 barrels a day, down from 26,000 barrels the week prior, and Rocky Mountain production fell to 7,000 barrels per day from 8,000 barrels. 

East Coast production was up to 14,000 barrels a day, on average, from 1.072 million a week earlier, the agency said. West Coast output rose by a thousand barrels to an average of 9,000 a day. 

Ethanol inventories in the week through Aug. 22 totaled 22.549 million barrels, EIA said. That’s down from 22.688 million barrels the week prior. 

3. Floods Forecast for Parts of Kansas, Oklahoma

Persistent showers will lead to further flooding in parts of southeastern Kansas and much of northern Oklahoma, National Weather Service maps show. 

“Numerous showers and thunderstorms will continue across most of the area this morning,” the agency said. “Showers and storms will decrease in coverage this afternoon and evening.”

Excessive precipitation will cause flooding in some areas. NWS has issued flash flood warnings, flood warnings and flood watches for the region. 

Minor flooding is also expected in parts of eastern Iowa and northern Illinois as storms rumble through the area, NWS said. 

Isolated storms are possible this morning and chances exist for thunderstorms this afternoon in the region, the agency said.