U.S. Corn Export Sales Forecast at Record Levels

By Ryan Hanrahan

The USDA Economic Research Service’s Jennifer Bond, Steven Ramsey, Seth Wechsler, and Joshua Huang reported that “U.S. corn export sales have continued at a blistering pace and support a 100-million-bushel month-to-month increase for the 2024/25 marketing year, raising the forecast to a record-high 2,750 million bushels.”

“If realized, 2024/25 corn exports will exceed the 2023/24 estimate by nearly 500 million bushels (22%),” Bond, Ramsey, Wechsler and Huang reported. “Through 300 days of the marketing year, exports sales are nearly on pace to match the previously record-setting level realized for the 2020/21 marketing year. Commitments—outstanding sales and shipments—as of July 3 totaled 2.731 billion bushels.”

“Elevated exports are supported by sizable year-to-year growth in shipments of U.S. corn to South Korea (+2.6 million metric tons), Mexico (+2.6 million tons), Japan (+2.1 million metric tons), and Spain (+1.8 million metric tons), among numerous smaller gains from a variety of countries—many located in South America and the European Union,” Bond, Ramsey, Wechsler and Huang reported.

China Nearly Non-Existent in U.S. Export Sales

“Notably, U.S. corn exports have surged without significant demand from China,” Bond, Ramsey, Wechsler and Huang reported. “In 2020/21, shipments to China accounted for nearly 31% of U.S. corn exports, whereas so far in 2024/25 shipments (based on Census Bureau data) to China are trace and comprise less than 1% (about 33,000 metric tons) of total exports (through May 2025). Exports to Canada are also down (about 53%) based on Census Bureau data through May 2025 and compared to the same time a year prior.”

Reuters’ Karen Braun reported that “China had struck up a trade relationship with No. 2 corn exporter Brazil a couple of years ago. But those purchases have dried up, too, reflecting China’s sharp drop-off as a global grain importer.”

“The U.S. Department of Agriculture in its monthly supply and demand report on Friday reduced its estimate for 2024-25 Chinese corn imports to 5 million metric tons from 7 million a month prior,” Braun reported. “That is a staggering 79% lower than in the previous year.”

Corn Exports in MY 2025/26 Could Be Less Certain

Braun reported in a different article that “Brazil has gotten a slow start to its corn exporting season, perhaps benefitting U.S. suppliers. Brazil’s shipments typically spike in July, though this month’s volume may not be record-setting.”

“Brazilian corn not only has to contend with U.S. competition, but it may also have to compete for port space with soybeans, which may have a more extended export season,” Braun reported. “This could limit U.S. corn exports for 2025-26, which starts on September 1. USDA’s current 2025-26 export target is also lofty and potentially questionable given the strong South American offering, but the early progress is good, as are the U.S. harvest prospects.”

“As of July 3, U.S. export sales for 2025-26 totaled an above-average 5.42 million tons,” Braun reported. “That is a nine-year high for the date when excluding sales to China, which has not bought significant U.S. corn volumes in over two years.”

In addition, Braun reported that “there is a scenario where the American grain farmer feels pain from U.S. tariffs against Brazil, particularly if the situation is drawn out.”

“The Brazilian real tumbled sharply on Wednesday’s announcement and then rebounded some on Thursday. After establishing record weakness against the dollar in December, the real had strengthened to near one-year highs as of this month,” Braun reported. “Any mechanism that weakens the real is beneficial to Brazilian farmers, who price their grain sales in dollars. A weaker real may elevate Brazilian farmer selling, possibly increasing export offerings.”

U.S. Corn Export Sales Forecast at Record Levels was originally published by Farmdoc.