Two Months Into Pause on Tariffs, Economist Says Ag Still ‘Treading Water’

It has been just over two months since the Trump Administration put a 90-day pause on the  “Liberation Day” reciprocal tariffs that were set to be imposed on every U.S. trade partner. Since the pause in early April, there have been trade deals officially announced by the administration with just two trade partners — the United Kingdom and China — despite reports of discussions with a number of nations. 

Less than a month remains until the 90-day pause is slated to end on July 8. Iowa State University economist Chad Hart provided insight on how the uncertainty ahead is impacting the agriculture sector this summer.

Sunny Day, Storm Clouds on the Horizon

Hart said the ag sector is in almost the same position as after the pause of the tariffs — doing OK in the short-term, but looking wearily toward an uncertain summer.

He said exports have been surprisingly strong given the time of year, something that has continued in the two months since the reciprocal tariff announcement. 

“I would argue we were there two months ago. We’re still there today, just waiting,” Hart said. “When you look at what’s been happening within the trade sphere, I would argue those trends from two months ago are still still going on right now. For example, when I look at the crop markets, for the most part exports have been doing actually really well, especially at a non-traditional time of year for us to have strong exports. At least the short-term impact has been good for that. But when I look at the advanced sales for the crops we’re growing now, those are lagging behind. 

“As I look out the window today, it’s a bright sunny day but I know there’s some storm clouds out there on the horizon.”

Any Trade Talks With China Positive

After initially agreeing to a reduction of tariffs with China in May that dropped the duties on incoming Chinese products to 55% in exchange for China dropping tariffs on all U.S. imports to 10%, the two sides had more discussions in early June in London. The result was a re-commitment to the lessened tariffs between the two countries. In those meetings were also conversations about China opening up the rare earth minerals market to the United States. 

Hart said the most recent talks with the third-biggest U.S. agricultural trade partner should be welcome news for farmers moving forward — despite the tariff rate on Chinese imports still being high.

“Having any sort of positive momentum is a good feature no matter what, whether it’s coming in rare earths in manufacturing or in agriculture,” Hart said. “It goes to show that the talks are ongoing, and that there has been some positive momentum somewhere. Usually if there’s positive momentum in one area, that indicates the potential for positive momentum in other areas. The tariff levels still being talked about are still fairly high. But at least now, especially as we look at U.S. exports facing a 10% tariff, that’s a manageable tariff.”

Warning Signs in Pork Sector

Hart shared concern about trends in the pork sector. Hart said there has been a softening of pork exports in 2025, and it has been consistent. Pork exports are 11% behind the pace of record 2024 numbers over the past few months, Hart said, and beef exports have also taken a 12% step back from prior numbers.

Hart said this indicates that countries are ramping up livestock production, which is hitting pork hardest, as U.S. pork production is on the rise.

“With more pork products hitting the marketplace, you need all the demand you can find,” Hart said. “If international demand is falling off by double digits, that’s putting an awful lot of pressure on the domestic market to soak up a lot of pork. If that pork is backing up into the U.S. market, that’s going to push down pork prices.”

Watching for Progress in South Korea and Japan

While a lot of attention has been paid to the top three U.S. agricultural trade partners — Mexico, Canada, and China — Hart said it is worth watching what happens in South Korea and Japan. 

Japan imported $13.1 billion worth of agricultural products from the United States in 2023, while South Korea imported $8.8 billion in agricultural goods during the same period. Hart said South Korea has been a growing partner in agricultural trade in recent years, making it an important target for negotiations over the next month. 

“There have been little bits and pieces about negotiations with those countries,” Hart said. “If those are going well, that means you’ve got all five of our biggest trade partners, for the most part, at least in a good spot. That usually bodes well.”

Smaller markets Hart is keeping an eye on include Colombia and Vietnam, two countries who have grown their trade with the United States in the 2020s. In early June, a trade delegation from Vietnam visited Iowa, Ohio, and Washington, D.C., and signed multiple memorandums of understanding (MOUs) pledging the purchase of agricultural products.

‘Treading Water’ As Time Ticks Down

Taking into account the slow developments of deal discussions to this point, Hart said the safest option for farmers is to tread water now and wait to make big moves until there’s more trade clarity. 

Hart acknowledged the timing of this uncertainty is risky for farmers, as any delays limits the ideal time to sell new crop corn and soybeans.

“The hope is that we do get some trade agreements in place, and if we do, that should perk up the market. I don’t want to necessarily move before that happens,” Hart said. “At the same time, if I’m worried about these trade deals not happening, you’re already in a spot where … once we get toward July, it tends not to be a good time to sell because you’re typically watching prices fall as we go into harvest anyway.

“If I’ve held off this long, it may be that I’m holding off until harvest or thereafter to price this crop and hoping for better days ahead.”