Forecast Presents ‘Nothing But Open Windows’ For Midwest Planting

The next week and into mid-May is expected to bring above-average chances of warmer temperatures and drier conditions throughout the majority of the Midwest. Southern Illinois, Missouri, Indiana, and Ohio have seen more moisture this spring. For example, according to Illinois State Climatologist Trent Ford, St. Louis recorded its wettest April on record this year. 

“They got 10, almost 11 inches of rain in St. Louis in April alone, which just gives you an idea of what parts of Missouri, the southern half of Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky — and even into Ohio — what we’ve been dealing with,” Ford said. 

Ford said that the forecast will allow soil temperatures in Illinois to rise again, after the 4-inch average soil temperature dropped from 70 degrees on April 29th to 54 degrees on May 4 in Champaign. Along with warmer temperatures, Ford said a drier pattern will help wet areas dry out.

Warm Week Ahead

“In Illinois, it’s 70s and 80s, and the same thing for Missouri and Indiana, with several days of none, or very little measurable, precipitation, which is exactly what the doctor called for in those areas that haven’t even been excessively wet,” Ford said. 

According to the most recent Crop Progress Report, Illinois is the Midwest state that’s farthest behind its five-year average for corn planted:12 percentage points. The report also stated that Illinois had 2.7 days suitable for fieldwork, as of May 4. Ford said that some areas in northern Illinois may finish at the same time or even before some farmers in southern Illinois. 

“This is going to be one of those years, where folks in northern Illinois — especially along the Wisconsin border — who have been drier, may actually get planted at the same time or even earlier than folks in southern Illinois who have gotten so much rain,” Ford said. 

May Temperature Outlook

The Climate Prediction Center indicates above-average chances for warmer-than-normal temperatures and below-normal precipitation for multiple states in the Midwest in the 6- to 10-day outlook. Ford thinks this warm, dry pattern will be consistent through May. 

“It doesn’t mean we’re going to go the entire month without rain, but we’re going to see nothing but open windows for the next three or four weeks,” Ford said. “Certainly for the next 7 to 10 days, things look good as far as drying out soils for folks who need it to dry out, or for areas where the soil is workable, to get some work done.” 

Drought Outlook

Going into the summer, Ford said that areas like eastern Iowa, Illinois, Indiana, Ohio, and Missouri can rely on more summer precipitation, while Kansas, Nebraska, and North and South Dakota rely on more precipitation in the spring.  

Ford emphasized the importance of Nebraska, North and South Dakota, and Kansas getting some precipitation because they are headed for a drier summer. He said there is a chance for those states to get some more moisture before the end of the month. 

“The good news is that the week 2 outlook, which takes us to the third week of the month, we see a little bit of a better chance of wetter-than-normal weather as that trough starts to move into the Plains,” Ford said. “So hopefully they can get another shot of moisture,  but we’ll have to wait and see.”