3 Big Things Today, April 23, 2025

1. Soybeans Higher in Overnight Trading

Soybean futures were higher in overnight trading as investors weigh comments by U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent indicating the trade war with China is expected to de-escalate. 

Bessent said Tuesday that he’s expecting to see “de-escalation” in the ongoing tit-for-tat trade war with China. 

The U.S. has imposed a whopping 145% tariff on imported Chinese goods, while China has slapped a 125% rate on U.S. products.

Still, Bessent reportedly said in a separate speech that talks with Beijing have yet to begin. 

Weighing on futures this morning, however, is a stronger dollar that is up 0.3% in overnight trading. A stronger greenback makes dollar-denominated goods including agricultural products more expensive for overseas buyers. 

Wheat was mixed overnight as investors weigh strong demand for U.S. supplies against forecast rainfall in the U.S. southern Plains where hard red winter varieties are growing. 

Overseas buyers have committed to purchase 21.6 million metric tons of U.S. wheat since the start of the marketing year on June 1, according to the Department of Agriculture. That’s up 15% from the same period last year. 

Accumulated exports of the grain are now at 17.8 million tons, a 13% year-on-year increase, USDA said. 

Rainfall is expected in the southern Plains this week with thunderstorms in the forecast for today and potentially tomorrow, according to the National Weather Service. 

Soybean futures added 7¢ to $10.53 a bushel overnight on the Chicago Board of Trade. Soymeal gained $1.60 to $301.10 a short ton, and soy oil rose 0.28¢ to 48.31¢ a pound.

Corn futures for July delivery fell ¾¢ to $4.82½ a bushel.

Wheat futures rose 1¼¢ to $5.51½ a bushel, while Kansas City futures lost ½¢ to $5.57¾ a bushel. 

2. Corn Production in Argentina Expected to Jump

Corn exports in Argentina will jump to their third-highest level on record and output is forecast to surge in the 2025/2026 marketing year, the Ag Department’s attaché in Buenos Aires said in a report this week. 

Shipments of the grain will total 37 million metric tons in the upcoming season, an increase from 34 million tons the previous year, the agency said. 

The main destinations for exports of corn from the South American country are Vietnam, Peru, Malaysia, South Korea, Chile, and Saudi Arabia. 

Production in Argentina will surge to 54 million metric tons, up from 49 million tons last year, which if realized would be the country’s fourth-largest crop on record. 

Planted area will jump almost 13% to 7.2 million hectares (17.8 million acres). 

Area sown with the grain in the current 2024/2025 year dropped “significantly” amid an outbreak of corn stunt in central and northern growing areas of Argentina. 

“Given current market conditions, farmers returns are projected better for corn than soybeans, similar to the combination of wheat followed by second soybeans on the same field in Argentina’s core production area,” USDA said. 

3. Thunderstorms Forecast for the Southern Plains

Scattered thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening in parts of the southern Plains, the National Weather Service said in a report early this morning. 

Hail and strong winds will be the primary hazards associated with the storms that are forecast to rumble across the Oklahoma and Texas panhandles, the agency said. 

Chances for tornadoes in the area are “very low.” 

Storms are also forecast for parts of central Iowa this morning and again this evening, NWS said. 

“A few may be strong with gusty winds, hail and locally heavy rain,” the agency said. 

Storms will linger in the area into tomorrow and may produce precipitation and some potentially severe weather.