3 Big Things Today, April 9, 2025

1. Soybean, Grain Futures Mixed Overnight

Soybean and grain futures were mixed in overnight trading as investors weigh a declining dollar value that boosts the attractiveness of U.S. goods against further concerns about the escalating trade war with China. 

The dollar was down 0.6% in overnight trading against a basket of its global counterparts after the U.S. imposed tariffs on several countries including a 104% rate on China, the world’s largest importer of soybeans. 

Tariffs on Chinese products may mean fewer available goods to U.S. consumers, increasing chances of inflation or a recession, which in turn weakens the greenback. 

China had already imposed a 34% tariff on U.S. goods, and today issued a statement decrying the tariffs Washington has imposed. 

Along with China, several other countries including Canada and Mexico, the U.S.’s largest trading partners, have been hit with high tariffs. 

Wheat futures were mostly higher overnight amid unfavorable weather in several growing areas around the world. 

Dry weather in the U.S. southern Plains is threatening the hard red winter wheat crop, while freezing weather in the eastern Midwest raised concerns about the soft red winter crop. 

About 48% of winter wheat in the U.S. was in good or excellent condition at the start of the week, down from 56% at the same point last year and 55% in late November, the Department of Agriculture said in its first crop progress report of the year. 

Soybean futures for May delivery rose ¼¢ to $9.93 a bushel overnight on the Chicago Board of Trade. Soymeal was up $1.70 to $292.70 a short ton, and soy oil lost 0.76¢ to 44.18¢ a pound.

Wheat futures for May delivery added 1¢ to $5.41 a bushel, while Kansas City futures jumped 6½¢ to $5.68 a bushel. 

Corn futures fell 1½¢ to $4.67½ a bushel.

2. Argentina Soybean Output to Increase Narrowly

Soybean production in Argentina will grow slightly in the 2025/2026 marketing year, according to a report from the Ag Department’s office in Buenos Aires. 

Output in the next marketing year will increase to 49.5 million metric tons, the attaché report said. That’s up from 49 million tons in the current year. 

Planted area will fall to 16.5 million hectares (40.8 million acres) from 17.5 million in the 2024/2025 marketing year. The decline in area planted with soybeans is due to normal rotations as farmers are expected to shift back to corn and sunflower cultivation following increased soybean planting this year. 

“Argentine farmers commonly follow alternating cycles between soy-dominant and corn-dominant years, as producers adapt rotations based on conditions and expected prices,” USDA said. “[Marketing year] 2024/2025 represented a peak in soybean planting, influenced more by elevated input costs and the pest concerns in corn.”

Input costs will likely increase and margins are forecast to be “razor thin or even negative” especially on rented land in 2025/2026, the attaché report said. Corn margins will be slightly more favorable. About 75% of farmland in the country is rented. 

Soybean exports from the South American country next year are seen at 5.5 million metric tons versus 4.5 million tons in the current marketing year, the agency said. 

3. Dry Weather Expected in Nebraska, Dakotas

Red flag warnings have been issued for parts of Colorado, Kansas, Nebraska, South Dakota, and North Dakota, according to National Weather Service maps. 

Winds will be sustained from 20–25 mph and gust up to 45 mph in northeastern Colorado and the Nebraska panhandle this afternoon, the agency said in a report early this morning. 

Relative humidity will fall to around 14%. 

In south-central North Dakota, winds will gust up to 45 mph and humidity will fall to about 22%, NWS said. 

Freeze warnings have been issued for much of southern Indiana and Ohio and a few counties in eastern Illinois. 

Temperatures overnight in central Ohio fell into the mid- to upper-20s while values in southern Indiana dropped to around 26° Fahrenheit. The warnings are expected to last through mid-morning, the agency said.