What Farmers Need to Know Before the April WASDE Report

The March World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report showed U.S. corn and soybean ending stocks unchanged while wheat stocks were revised slightly higher due to weak export demand. The April WASDE report is due Thursday, April 10. Ahead of the new report, here is what farmers need to know about the corn, soybean, and wheat markets, and what Grain Market Insider will be looking for in the updated balance sheets.

Corn Market Expectations

U.S. corn carryout for 2024/2025 was left unchanged at 1.54 billion bushels on the March report. World ending stocks were lowered from 290.31 million metric tons (mmt) in February to 288.94 mmt.

Demand has remained firm, with export demand continuing to exceed the USDA’s projected pace for the 2024/2025 crop year. Total sales commitments are at 87.2% of the USDA’s current forecast, compared to the five-year average of 82.2% by this point in the year. Export inspections are at 54.6% of the USDA’s current estimate, compared to the five-year average of 44.4%. Ethanol production has slowed in recent weeks, but still remains ahead of the current forecast. Grain Market Insider sees final usage near 5.56 billion bushels for the crop year, versus the USDA’s current estimate of 5.5 billion.

Grain Market Insider thinks an increase in export demand and ethanol production is warranted for the April report. It is also possible that feed demand is lowered due to fewer animals on feed and a mild winter. Overall, Grain Market Insider thinks U.S. ending stocks will be lowered by 25-50 million bushels in this week’s report. 

Soybean Market Outlook

U.S. ending stocks for 2024/2025 soybeans were left unchanged at 380 million bushels in March. World ending stocks were reduced from 124.34 mmt to 121.41 mmt.

While the export pace has slowed in recent months, export commitments and inspections for 2024/2025 are still slightly ahead of the pace needed to meet the USDA’s goal for the crop year. Soybean sales are at 93% of the USDA’s current projection compared to the five-year average of 90.6% by this point in the year. Inspections are running about 3% ahead of the five-year average pace. 

Soybean crush for the month of February was 189 million bushels, down from 193 million last year. The current crush pace is in line with the current estimate for the crop year.

With exports slowing, and only slightly better than the current forecast, Grain Market Insider does not expect any adjustments to soybean ending stocks in the April report.

Considerations for the Wheat Market

The March crop report was bearish for wheat. U.S. ending stocks were increased from 794 million bushels to 819 million due to weak export demand. World ending stocks were also adjusted higher from 257.56 mmt to 260.08 mmt. 

Export sales have remained steady since last month’s report. The current sales pace of 91.8% of USDA’s current estimate for the crop year is in line with the five-year average. The current pace of inspections continues to lag, however, at 74.8% of the current estimate compared to the five-year average of 76.9% by this point in the year. 

The pace of inspections does tend to pick up between now and the end of the marketing year, so Grain Market Insider expects carryout to be unchanged in this week’s report.

Historical Patterns and Statistical Perspective

Based on data from 2000–2023, Grain Market Insider’s internal research indicates that volatility on the April WASDE report day tends to be low for corn and moderate for soybeans and wheat. 

For corn, the April report tends to generate a negative market reaction 55% of the time. In terms of outright volatility, this report ranks near the bottom with an average absolute change of 5¢. When examining upward or downward moves, the average positive net change on report day is 8¢, while the average negative net change is 4¢.

For soybeans, the April report ranks slightly higher in outright volatility than for corn. The report has a 59% chance of triggering a negative market reaction. When the reaction is positive, the average bounce is 15¢, compared to an average decline of 8¢ if the reaction is negative.

For wheat, the April WASDE report volatility ranks in the middle, with an average net change of 6¢. The report has a 50-50 chance of being positive or negative. Positive reactions average an 11¢ gain, while negative reactions yield a 7¢ loss.

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About the Author: Eric Fransen is the Director of TFM360 Market Analytics at Total Farm Marketing. Eric’s calm, confident, and reasonable approach to farm marketing has been a safe harbor to his clients and the grain team alike since 2007, making him a welcome person to turn to in an often-unsettled market. Eric enjoys breaking down and explaining complex concepts and strategies to farmers as he helps them make decisions to help improve their bottom lines.