Safras Trims Forecast for Brazil’s Soy Output but Still Expects Bumper Crop

By Gabriel Araujo

SAO PAULO, March 14 (Reuters) – Brazil’s 2024/25 soybean crop is expected to reach 172.45 million metric tons, agribusiness consultancy Safras & Mercado said on Friday, lowering its forecast from a previous 174.88 million tons.

The revised crop outlook remains above the 167.37 million tons forecast by state agricultural agency Conab in data released on Thursday.

“The Brazilian crop continues to have great potential and is progressing well in the fields,” Safras analyst Rafael Silveira said in a note. “This scenario reinforces expectations for a large supply of soybeans in Brazil in 2025.”

Safras said the downward revision was largely due to poor growing conditions in Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil’s southernmost state, where hot, dry weather will curtail the crop.

Still, this season’s harvest was on track to be 13.2% larger than in 2023/24, when the world’s leading producer and exporter of the oilseed grappled with adverse weather conditions, the consultancy noted.

The latest forecast includes some upward revisions for production in Goias state and northeastern Brazil, where yields have been favorable, it said.

Safras estimated Brazil’s 2024/25 soybean growing area at 47.47 million hectares, up 2.2% year-on-year.

(Reporting by Gabriel Araujo)