Brazil’s Conab Raises Soy Crop Forecast, Exports to Increase

By Ana Mano

SAO PAULO, March 13 (Reuters) – Brazilian soybean farmers will reap an even bigger crop in the 2024/25 season than previously expected, according to forecasts released by crop agency Conab on Thursday, as deepening trade tensions are likely to increase demand from China.

Brazil’s soybean crop, which farmers are harvesting now, is expected to total 167.37 million tons, about 1.3 million tons more than in Conab’s February forecast and above an all-time record of 155.7 million tons in the 2022/23 season.

Conab data showed that more than 105 million tons of that production will be exported, up 7% from the previous season.

Brazil, the world’s biggest producer and exporter of the oilseed, competes with the United States and Argentina in global markets and sells most of its soybeans to China, which processes it domestically for oil and livestock feed.

Chinese demand for Brazilian exports is likely to increase after Beijing imposed import levies on U.S. agricultural and food products, including soybeans earlier this month, in response to Trump administration tariff hikes on Chinese goods.

The expectation of large supplies has pressured soy prices in Chicago.

Conab highlighted a 10.2% rise in soy yields nationwide and a 2.8% increase in the area cultivated with the oilseed, which this season totaled 47.45 million hectares (117.251 million acres).

For Rio Grande do Sul state, where a drought cut yields and output, Conab expects soy production of 17 million tons, 2.6 million tons less than in the previous season.

Conab’s estimate for the country’s southernmost state is more bullish than the state’s own crop agency forecast, which pegged it at 15.07 million tons this week.

Brazil’s total corn production will also rise by 6.1% to 122.76 million, helped by favorable weather for first corn, Conab forecasts.

Brazil plants three corn crops, the largest of which is second corn, accounting for about 75% of national output in a given year.

(Reporting by Ana ManoEditing by Tomasz Janowski, Louise Heavens and Joe Bavier)