3 Big Things Today, March 10, 2025

1. Wheat Futures Higher in Overnight Trading

Wheat futures rose in overnight trading on concerns about dry weather in the southern Plains. 

Little or no rain is expected in much of Kansas, the biggest U.S. producer of the grain, this week and instead windy, dry conditions are in the forecast. 

Red flag warnings, an indicator of extremely dry weather, have been issued for much of Kansas and parts of several other states as dry weather moves in, according to the National Weather Service. 

Strong winds and low relative humidity are forecast for much of the state throughout the week, according to forecasts. 

Still, only about 25% of Kansas is suffering from drought conditions.

Topsoil moisture remains solid in the state at 65% adequate or surplus, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said in a report last week. Some 25% of topsoil was short and 10% was very short on moisture. 

About 54% of the winter wheat crop in Kansas was in good or excellent condition last week, 32% was fair and 14% was poor or very poor, USDA said. 

Wheat futures for May delivery rose 6½¢ to $5.57¾ a bushel overnight on the Chicago Board of Trade, while Kansas City futures gained 5½¢ to $5.70¼ a bushel. 

Corn futures fell a tick to $4.69 a bushel. 

Soybeans for May delivery fell 5¢ to $10.20 a bushel. Soymeal was unchanged at $304.40 a short ton, and soy oil dropped 1.03¢ to 42.39¢ a pound. 

2. Chinese Cattle Output to Decline in 2025

Cattle production in China will decline year over year amid declining beef prices while swine output will increase, according to a report from USDA’s attaché in Beijing.

The calf crop in 2025 is now forecast at 45.6 million head, down from a prior outlook for 52 million head and behind last year’s 47.5 million head, the agency said. 

“While feed costs, a major cost for cattle production, decreased, beef prices fell even further,” the report said. “Sources indicate the profitability of China’s beef cattle industry has been steadily declining since 2022.” 

Losses in 2023 and 2024 persisted and about 70% of cattle producers in China are losing money, USDA said. 

Swine production in China, meanwhile, is expected to grow narrowly this year. 

The pig crop is forecast at 705 million head, up from the previous projection of 700 million, the attaché report said. Output last year totaled just under 705 million head. 

“Post forecasts swine production to grow in 2025 due to higher pigs per sow per year because of improved animal husbandry practices and industry consolidation,” USDA said. “The production growth is curbed by lower sow inventory.”

3. Dry Weather Expected in Several Corn Belt States

Extremely dry weather is expected in parts of Midwestern states while intense winds are forecast for the northern Plains, according to map from the National Weather Service. 

Red flag warnings have been issued for parts of several states including South Dakota, Minnesota, Nebraska, Iowa, Kansas, and Missouri. 

In southern Iowa and northern Missouri, winds will be sustained from 20–25 mph and gust up to 35 mph this afternoon, NWS said. Relative humidity will drop to around 20%. 

“Any fires that develop will likely spread rapidly,” the agency said. “Outdoor burning is not recommended.”

In central North Dakota, winds this afternoon will gust up to 65 mph, NWS said. 

“The high winds may damage roofs, small outbuildings and signs,” the agency said. “Tree branches may be broken and lead to power outages. Travel will be difficult, especially with high-profile vehicles.”