A Timeline of Trump’s Trade Wars Between U.S., Canada, Mexico, and China

Even before winning the presidential election in November 2024, Donald Trump was vocal about his intent to levy tariffs against trade partners Canada, China, and Mexico. 

President Trump’s escalation of trade tensions in recent months has led to uncertainty in the agriculture sector of the economy, as an already challenged farm economy may face reciprocal tariffs from some of its largest trading partners. 

Below is a timeline of the situation and coverage from Successful Farming.

Timeline

Oct. 17, 2024

Prior to the election, a study commissioned by the American Soybean Association (ASA) and the National Corn Growers Association (NGCA) found that “United States corn and soybean farmers could lose billions of dollars in annual production value in the event of a potential new tariff-induced U.S.-China trade war,” depending on how China responded to U.S. tariffs promised by Trump as a candidate.

Nov. 4, 2024

An Iowa farmer and multiple economists expressed concern over Trump’s stated intent to levy a 60% tariff on goods from China. Economists said “Trump’s tariff plans, likely his most consequential economic policy, would push U.S. import duty rates back up to 1930s-era levels, stoke inflation, collapse U.S.-China trade, draw retaliation, and drastically reorder supply chains, according to Reuters.”

Nov. 26, 2024

After winning the election, Trump said one of his first executive orders after taking office would be placing a 25% tariff on all products coming into the United States from Mexico and Canada. Trump accused Chinese President Xi Jinping of “not taking strong enough action to stop the flow of illicit drugs crossing the border into the U.S. from Mexico,” Reuters reported.

Dec. 2, 2024

Trump nominated Jamison Greer (later confirmed on Feb. 26, 2025) to be the U.S. Trade Representative. Greer was the chief of staff for USTR in Trump’s first administration, and Trump said Greer played a key role “in imposing tariffs on China and others to combat unfair trade practices and replacing the failed NAFTA with USMCA.”

Dec. 5, 2024

American Farm Bureau Federation Economist Roger Cryan said he would prefer Trump and the United States negotiate with Canada and Mexico before applying harsh tariffs. 

“I think it’s important, when we’re talking about friends like Mexico and Canada, that we talk first,” said Cryan. “And think about shooting later.”

Dec. 31, 2024

At the end of 2024, CoBank reported that policy uncertainty and the potential for trade wars, coupled with other factors, could be negative not just for the U.S. rural market, but for the world ag commodities market, as well. 

Jan. 7, 2025

Trump pushed back against a Washington Post report that his aides were considering cutting down on his near-universal plans for import tariffs once he got into office. 

“The story in the Washington Post, quoting so-called anonymous sources, which don’t exist, incorrectly states that my tariff policy will be pared back. That is wrong,” Trump said on the Truth Social network.

Jan. 8, 2025

Agricultural input companies, worried about the potential impact of tariffs once Trump took office, began 2025 by front-loading import shipments. 

Jan. 16, 2025

Analysts said China approved “a tranche of new biotech crop varieties and announced plans to accelerate breeding to boost yields – the latest chapter in a long-running drive for greater self-sufficiency,” according to Agri-Pulse. The moves signaled China’s push to be more formidable in the event of  a trade war. 

Jan. 21, 2025

Now in office, Trump did not immediately impose 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada. He announced he would push the implementation of those duties to Feb. 1.

Jan. 22, 2025

In response to the Trump Administration’s talk of tariffs, Farmdoc’s Joana Colussi, Gary Schnitkey, and Nick Paulson took a wide-lens look at agricultural trade over the years, with particular focus on corn and soybean exports.

Trump declared plans for an additional 10% tariffs against China would go into effect Feb. 1, citing claims of China “sending fentanyl to Mexico and Canada.” He also threatened to put tariffs on countries in the European Union.

Jan. 24, 2025

In confirmation hearings in the Senate, now Ag Secretary Brooke Rollins vowed to “provide another round of financial aid if farmers are hurt by a trade war sparked by increased tariffs.”

In a speech to various government leaders in Davos, Switzerland, Trump said companies that didn’t create their products in America would have to deal with tariffs — and claimed those tariffs would generate trillions of dollars in revenue. 

Jan. 30, 2025

Mexico President Claudia Sheinbaum said that while she didn’t believe tariffs against Mexico would go into effect, the country did have a plan to impose retaliatory tariffs on the United States, with sources telling Reuters that tariffs would likely be targeted at the automotive industry.

Jan. 31, 2025

Trump confirmed he planned to implement 25% tariffs on goods from Mexico and Canada on Feb. 1 — a threat from before his inauguration. He cited immigration, fentanyl, and trade deficits as the reason. 

Feb. 3, 2025

Trump signed three executive orders placing tariffs on Mexico, Canada, and China — all of which were set to take effect Feb. 4. Mexico and Canada had 25% duties levied with Canada’s energy imports at a lower 10%. 

Canada announced immediate retaliatory tariffs against the United States in an initial tranche of products including orange juice, peanut butter, and beer, among others. Mexico also announced the planning of “tariff and non-tariff measures.”

Michigan was in a potential crossfire for tariffs, as it imported more goods from Canada, Mexico, and China than any other U.S. state. In total, Michigan imported 19% of its goods from the three countries, according to an analysis from Finch Ratings. 

Gov. Gretchen Whitmer issued a statement saying the decision will raise costs on goods and services critical to Michiganders, per the Michigan Advance.

Less than 48 hours after signing an executive order announcing the tariffs, Trump announced delays to the duties against Mexico and Canada. He claimed victories in border security from both countries, while Mexico President Claudia Steinbaum said on the social media network X that the agreement included a U.S. commitment to prevent trafficking of high-powered weapons to Mexico. 

Tariffs against China went into effect.

Feb. 5, 2025

China’s Ministry of Finance announced retaliatory tariffs against the United States. Those duties mostly avoided agricultural commodities, although ag machinery and natural gas were targeted with duties ranging from 10% to 15%. 

Farmdoc took a look at the reliance U.S. farmers have on Canada, China, and Mexico for fertilizer imports — including on the individual components of many fertilizers used by farmers — and the impact tariffs could have on the availability of those inputs.

Feb. 6, 2025

Despite delays in tariffs from Mexico and Canada, there was concern about the potential for price increases for farm inputs. 

“Additional tariffs on imports from China is going to make it more expensive to make equipment in the United States,” Kip Eideberg, senior vice president at the Association of Equipment Manufacturers, told Agri-Pulse.

Farmers warned senators that uncertainty around U.S. trade policy was only adding to the long-standing difficulties facing the ag economy.

Feb. 11, 2025

Republicans in Congress expressed an unwillingness to push back against Trump’s use of executive powers to levy tariffs on trade partners — a contrast from the first Trump administration. 

“I’m going to give Trump some discretion on using that in an effective way,” said Rep. Darin LaHood, R-Ill.. “I don’t like the ramifications on inflation and how it affects agriculture, but I think we’re going to give him some discretion.”

Feb. 12, 2025

Trump increased tariffs on steel and aluminum imports to 25%, with duties set to go into effect March 12. People in the ag sector worried that U.S. trade allies could end up being most impacted by these duties — and could retaliate at the expense of the farm economy.

Feb. 13, 2025

Initial retaliations from Canada and China spared agriculture commodities. But machinery was still in the crossfire, putting ag inputs at risk of scarcity and higher prices.

Feb. 14, 2025

A newly signed Trump executive order laid the groundwork for reciprocal tariffs against a number of U.S. trade partners to go into effect in April, which Trump said could cause prices to rise on food products. Trump said these duties would help farmers “very much.”

Feb. 18, 2025

Trump’s intent on levying reciprocal tariffs against trade partners could overhaul U.S. trade with positive and negative impacts, said a former U.S. trade negotiator. 

Feb. 25, 2025

After delaying the tariffs against Mexico and Canada for a month, Trump said he intended to put them into effect on March 4, saying the 25% duties would resume “on schedule.”

Feb. 27, 2025

Trump caused confusion when he initially told reporters in a press gathering that tariffs against Mexico and Canada would go into effect on April 2. The White House walked back these comments, clarifying that the March 4 date was the expected start date for duties against the U.S. allies.

Feb. 28, 2025

Trump clarified his comments and confirmed 25% duties would go into effect against Canada and Mexico on March 4, while adding an additional 10% tariff on goods from China. 

March 3, 2025

A panel discussed the potential negative impacts of upcoming tariffs on the weekly Agri-Pulse Newsmaker show. 

In addition, China announced it was planning countermeasures for additional tariffs levied by the United States — targeting agriculture exports. Trump then signed an executive order bumping tariffs on imports from China up to 20% from the previous 10% duties imposed in February. 

March 4, 2025

China upped its retaliation to U.S. tariffs by suspending the license of three U.S. soybean importers: CHS Inc, global grains exporter Louis Dreyfus Company Grains Merchandising LLC, and export grain terminal operator EGT. 

Tariffs on Mexico and Canada took effect, putting up to $2.2 trillion in yearly trade in doubt. Trump said additional tariffs would take hold on April 2.

Reuters reported that worries about the potential impact of tariffs and retaliation from key trade partner Mexico were especially notable for Illinois, where 40% of all corn exports that travel by train originated in 2024. 

March 5, 2025

Farm organizations, members of Congress, commodity organizations, and state-level ag groups reacted to the new tariffs with frustration and concern. “Farmers support the goals of ensuring security and fair trade with other nations, but additional tariffs, along with expected retaliatory tariffs, will take a toll on rural America,” said American Farm Bureau Federation President Zippy Duvall.

Ag Secretary Rollins implored members of the National Association of Counties to trust Trump’s tariff strategy and said the administration was considering using the Commodity Credit Corporation to compensate farmers impacted by the latest trade wars.

China placed 15% tariffs on U.S. imports such as chicken, cotton, wheat, and corn, with soybeans and pork subject to 10% duties. Canada implemented an opening wave of tariffs covering $20 billion in U.S. goods, with the promise of a further $86 billion in imports taking effect in 21 days. 

China then signaled its readiness to increase imports from Brazil, Netherlands, and Spain. 

March 6, 2025

Just over 24 hours into the full implementation of tariffs on Canada and Mexico, decisions were made by U.S. ag equipment companies dealing with the possibility of rising input costs.

March 7, 2025

Trump backed off of the full-on 25% tariffs against Canada and Mexico, instead carving out exemptions for all goods imported from the two countries that comply with the United States-Mexico-Canada trade agreement (USMCA). This covered roughly 38% of all Canadian imports and 50% of Mexican imports. In addition, Trump lessened the tariff on potash imports from Canada to 10%.

The USDA’s monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report will factor in the tariffs placed against Canada, Mexico, and China into its estimates, said Joanna Hitchner, an agricultural economist for USDA’s World Agricultural Outlook Board.