3 Big Things Today, Feb. 5. 2025

1. Corn, Wheat Futures Higher in Overnight Trading

Grain futures were higher in overnight trading as concerns ease about an immediate trade war with Mexico, the biggest importer of corn from the U.S.

U.S. President Donald Trump said Monday that he would hold off on imposing 25% tariffs on all goods from Mexico and Canada. 

The planned tariffs, announced Saturday, were paused after the countries said they would continue to implement plans to secure their borders with the U.S. 

That eased concerns about potential retaliatory tariffs from Mexico and Canada. 

Still, a 10% tariff on Chinese imports took effect on Tuesday morning, triggering retaliatory levies on U.S. goods shipped to the Asian nation. 

Beijing said it would put a 15% tariff on U.S. coal and liquefied natural gas and several other items, and a 10% levy on crude oil and agricultural equipment. 

Wheat prices gained amid extremely dry weather in the U.S. southern Plains where hard red winter wheat is overwintering. Red flag conditions, an indication of high winds and low relative humidity, have been issued in the region for this afternoon. 

Corn futures for March delivery rose 1¾¢ to $4.96¼ a bushel overnight on the Chicago Board of Trade. 

Wheat gained 4¼¢ to $5.81¼ a bushel, while Kansas City futures were up 6½¢ to $6.01¼ a bushel. 

Soybean futures for March delivery fell 2¢ to $10.73 a bushel. Soymeal lost $1 to $313 a short ton and soy oil dropped 0.39¢ to 45.37¢ a pound. 

2. Ukraine Grain Output, Exports Expected to Plummet

Ukraine grain output in the 2024/2025 marketing season is now forecast to drop 13% from the previous year, according to a report from the Ag Department’s office in Kyiv. 

Production in the year that ends on June 30 is expected to fall 13% annually as corn, barley, and rye output are all projected to fall, the attaché report said. 

Corn production will plunge 24% from its 2023/2024 estimate to 24.6 million metric tons, the agency said. 

Barley output is projected to fall 3% to 5.9 million metric tons, and rye production is seen at 190,000 tons, an 18% year-over-year decrease. Wheat production is forecast at 22.9 million metric tons, little changed from the 2023/2024 estimate.

Exports in the 2024/2025 marketing year are also expected to plummet.

Wheat shipments from the war-torn country are projected to drop 19% to 15 million metric tons and corn exports are forecast to fall 33% to 19.6 million tons, USDA said. Barley shipments will decline 5% to 2.6 million tons. 

Rye shipments will jump sixfold to 12,000 metric tons. 

“There are two major limiting factors for 2024/2025 grain exports,” the attaché report said. “The first is depletion of ending stocks accumulated primarily in calendar year 2022 due to the full-scale Russian invasion. The second is lower production estimates for corn, which is the backbone of grain exports.”

3. Winter Weather Forecast from Oklahoma to Atlantic

Winter weather advisories have been issued for a large chunk of land stretching from northern Oklahoma east to the Atlantic seaboard, according to National Weather Service maps. 

In southern Kansas and northern Oklahoma, freezing drizzle and accumulations of ice are expected to start at about noon today, the agency said. 

In central Iowa where advisories will begin at noon and last until 9 p.m., a tenth of an inch of ice is expected along with freezing drizzle. 

“Very slippery sidewalks, roads, and bridges are possible,” NWS said. 

In the southern Plains, intense winds and low humidity will create tinderbox-like conditions. 

Winds in the Oklahoma and Texas panhandles will be sustained from 15–25 mph and gust up to 35 mph, the agency said. Relative humidity will drop as low as 11%.