5 Grain Market Fundamentals Every Farmer Should Watch in August 2025

It seems as if grain marketing gets increasingly more challenging as each year passes. There are many moving parts, and you need to watch them all, balance accordingly, and be ready with a mindset to capture market opportunities and manage risk.

What’s Happened

August might be a significant turning point for corn and soybean prices, as many pieces of fundamental information will become available.

Prices are at a tipping point at which a rally might begin. Or, a lack of friendly fundamental news could send prices catapulting lower. 

From a Marketing Perspective

Here are the five fundamentals to monitor this month:

1. Watch Weather Events

Piecing together the supply puzzle will be paramount in the coming weeks, and weather will be a big part of that. How will those final yield numbers look for U.S. crops? Will August high temperatures zap yield potential for soybeans? 

Corn yields in portions of the Midwest are coming in better than expected — is that more widespread than we thought? Or will we find out that pollination struggles with some yield varieties are more extensive than the industry expected? Traders currently are pricing in corn yield closer to 184 or 185 bpa, higher than the current USDA’s 181. However, if the yield ends up closer to 181, or lower, that would be supportive for prices. 

Don’t forget about global supply. Right now, trade thinks the global marketplace will have sufficient supplies of corn and soybeans, thanks to a large South American crop. The notion of ample global production keeps a lid on any potential price rally.

2. Keep an Eye on Demand

Demand has been more than robust in the corn market. Corn use for ethanol demand is solid for the 2025/2026 crop year, pegged at 5.5 billion bushels. Feed and residual demand is also strong at 5.85 billion bushels, with exports marked at 2.675 billion bushels. 

Soybean domestic demand is phenomenal, thanks to crush demand for biofuel. Soybeans used for crush are slated as 2.54 billion bushels, up from 2.42 billion last year. But where will soybean exports ultimately fall? Right now, the USDA has soybean exports for the 2025/2026 crop year pegged at 1.745 billion bushels, but many in the industry question if that number is too high. The fear is, we will continue to lose soybean export demand to China due to ongoing trade negotiations and issues. China continues to purchase most of its needs from South America. 

The August USDA WASDE report will be scrutinized closely for signs of expectations of soybean exports, which will lay the next cornerstone for grain price movement as we begin the fourth quarter.

3. Monitor the U.S. Dollar

The U.S. dollar continues to slide lower, trading near 97.00, after peaking near 110.00 in January. Currency fluctuations likely will continue for the remainder of 2025 as the Fed continues to monitor inflation, trade war, and tariff risks. 

Remember: When the value of the U.S. dollar is down, currency exchange rates make it cheaper for other countries to import our commodities. A lower dollar likely increases demand for corn and soybean exports.

4. Remember the Seasonals

Though there are no guarantees seasonal price patterns will hold true every year, price patterns are still important to monitor for grain markets.

• When are grains usually cheapest? At harvest, when supplies are plentiful.
• When are grain prices often most attractive? Late winter, early spring, or early summer, when the size and potential production of the crop is unknown.

Being aware of these seasonal time frames can help you make prudent pricing decisions for your crops.

5. Follow the Funds

Big investment fund managers partake in the trading of commodities. They also monitor all the fundamentals listed above, as they look for opportunities to invest and make money.

Recently, funds are short nearly 200,000 contracts of corn futures and 32,000 contracts of soybean futures. Depending on how the fundamentals play out, they may continue to sell into this market, growing their hefty net short position. On the other hand, should something friendly occur for fundamentals, fund managers will begin to exit their short positions, potentially becoming net buyers. 

Prepare Yourself

Monitoring and balancing these five important fundamentals during August is so important to help you best manage marketing opportunities and minimize market risks.

Revisit these fundamentals often, as news shifts weekly. Be ready to act on pricing opportunities as they become available. Have action plans ready for whatever market scenario unfolds. Remember, marketing is how you get paid for your hard work. Prices can turn on a whim; be confident and ready.

If you have questions, you can reach Naomi Blohm at [email protected] or visit TotalFarmMarketing.com. 

Disclaimer: The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Individuals acting on this information are responsible for their own actions. Commodity trading may not be suitable for all recipients of this report. Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. Examples of seasonal price moves or extreme market conditions are not meant to imply that such moves or conditions are common occurrences or likely to occur. Futures prices have factored in the seasonal aspects of supply and demand. No representation is being made that scenario planning, strategy, or discipline will guarantee success or profits. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell, or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing. Total Farm Marketing and TFM refer to Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., Stewart-Peterson Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of the National Futures Association. SP Risk Services, LLC is an insurance agency and an equal opportunity provider. Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. A customer may have relationships with all three companies. SP Risk Services LLC and Stewart-Peterson Inc. are wholly owned by Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. Unless otherwise noted, services referenced are services of Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. Presented for solicitation.