3 Big Things Today, Sept. 15, 2025

1. Corn Drops as USDA Raises Production Outlook

Corn futures were lower in overnight trading after the USDA unexpectedly raised its already lofty outlook for U.S. corn output. 

Production in the 2025/2026 marketing year that started on Sept. 1 is now forecast at 16.814 billion bushels, USDA said in a monthly supply and demand report. Yield was projected at 186.7 bushels an acre. 

Both would be records if realized. 

The estimates compare with month-earlier forecasts from the agency for 16.742 billion bushels on yield of 188.8 bushels an acre, while analysts polled by Reuters were expecting output of 16.516 billion bushels on yield of 186.2 bushels an acre. 

While USDA lowered its forecast for yield it also raised its outlook for harvested acres to 90 million from 88.7 million in August. 

Soybean production is now projected at 4.301 billion bushels on yield of 53.5 bushels an acre, the government said. That compares with the month-earlier outlook for 4.292 billion bushels on yield of 53.6 bushels an acre. 

Analysts had forecast output at 4.271 billion bushels on yield of 53.3 bushels an acre. 

The trade had widely expected USDA to lower its forecast for corn and bean production amid dry weather in the U.S. Midwest in the past month. 

Corn futures fell 4½¢ to $4.25¼ a bushel overnight on the Chicago Board of Trade. 

Soybeans for November delivery lost 5¾¢ to $10.40½ a bushel. Soymeal dropped $2.90 to $285.70 a short ton and soybean oil futures rose 0.17¢ to 52.34¢ a pound. 

Wheat futures for December delivery rose 1/4¢ to $5.23¾ a bushel. Kansas City futures lost ½¢ to $5.14¼ a bushel. 

2. Speculators Take Bearish Stance on Soybeans

Money managers again turned bearish on soybean futures in the week that ended on Sept. 9, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission said in a report. 

Investors held a net short position, or bets on lower prices, of 13,382 futures contracts in soybeans, the agency said. That’s a shift from a bullish stance of 11,416 contracts seven days earlier and the most bearish since Aug. 12. 

Speculators were net short in corn by 99,593 futures contracts in corn, up from 95,197 contracts the week prior, CFTC said. 

In wheat, hedge funds and other large investment houses were net short on hard red winter futures by 52,163 contracts, down slightly from 53,809 contracts the previous week. 

Investors held a net short position of 93,287 futures contracts in soft red winter wheat as of Tuesday, up from 83,276 contracts a week earlier, CFTC said in its report. 

The weekly Commitment of Traders report from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission shows trader positions in futures markets.

The report provides positions held by commercial traders, or those using futures to hedge their physical assets; noncommercial traders, or money managers (also called large speculators); and nonreportables, or small speculators.

A net long position indicates more traders are betting on higher prices, while a net short position means more are betting futures will decline.

3. Storms Possible in Parts of Iowa, Illinois

Storms are possible today and tonight in parts of eastern Iowa and central Illinois, according to the National Weather Service. 

Lightning and gusty winds are the main threats associated with the storms, the agency said. Severe weather, however, is not expected. 

Another round of non-severe weather may roll through the area tomorrow, though some stronger storms are possible later in the week, NWS said. 

Further east, dry weather in parts of central Indiana may lead to elevated fire conditions. 

Relative humidity is forecast to fall as low as 25% in the area and dry ground will mean wildfire threats from Tuesday through Friday, the agency said.