3 Big Things Today, Oct. 27, 2025

1. Soybeans, Grains Surge on Expected China Deal

Soybean and grain futures jumped overnight after the U.S. and China agreed to a potential trade deal that may be finalized when Presidents Donald Trump and Xi Jinping meet later this week. 

Negotiators hammered out deals TikTok’s U.S. operations and rare-earth minerals, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said. 

China is expected to resume purchases of U.S. soybeans, while Washington likely will not put a 100% tariff rate on Beijing, he said. 

Trump and Xi are expected to meet on the sidelines of an economic forum in South Korea on Thursday. 

Bessent said the deal was a “very successful framework” that the presidents will discuss when they meet.

Chinese officials were more skeptical, saying they reached a preliminary deal and had constructive talks with U.S. negotiators. 

Still, Trump said at a separate summit in Malaysia that he and Xi have agreed to meet and suggested the two would meet for future discussions in China and the U.S. 

Soybean futures for November delivery jumped 18 1/4¢ to $10.78 1/2 a bushel overnight on the Chicago Board of Trade. Soymeal was up $2.70 to $296.80 a short ton and soybean oil futures added 0.38¢ to 50.65¢ a pound. 

Corn futures for December delivery surged 6 1/4¢ to $4.29 1/2 a bushel. 

Wheat futures for December delivery gained 10 3/4¢ a bushel, and Kansas City futures jumped 10 1/4¢ to $5.11 3/4 a bushel. 

2. World Grain Output to Rise More Than Expected: IGC

Global grain production will be stronger than previously expected as wheat output is expected to jump year over year, according to a report from the International Grains Council. 

Grain output globally is expected to reach 2.425 billion metric tons, IGC said. That would be up from 2.327 billion tons in the previous marketing year and above the September estimate for 2.412 billion. 

Ending stockpiles are pegged at 618 million metric tons, up from 593 tons a year earlier and ahead of the previous estimate for 606 million tons, the agency said. 

Wheat production is forecast to rise to 827 million tons this year from 800 million last year, IGC said. That forecast is up from last month’s outlook for 819 million tons. 

Carryout is seen at 275 million metric tons, up from 267 million in the previous year and above the prior projection of 270 million tons. 

Corn output is estimated at 1.297 billion metric tons, up from 1.239 billion tons during the previous marketing year, but unchanged from the September outlook, the agency said. 

Inventories of the grain are now forecast at 299 million tons, up from 290 million in the 2024-2025 season and up from the previous estimate for 294 million tons. 

Soybean production is estimated at 428 million metric tons, down last year’s output and the previous estimate, both of which totaled 429 million tons. 

Stocks are pegged at 79 million metric tons, down from 81 million a year earlier and the previous outlook for 81 million tons, IGC said in its report. 

3. Cold Weather Headed to the Southern Plains

Cooler weather is forecast for parts of the southern Plains this week as a cold front moves into the region, according to the National Weather Service. 

The front is expected to move into the region this afternoon and last for much of the week, the agency said. 

Light rain is forecast for today, and freezing temperatures are possible Wednesday and Thursday mornings, NWS said. The best chance for a hard freeze would be in the western panhandles of Oklahoma and Texas. 

Intense winds are expected in parts of western and northern Nebraska, which may result in increased risk of wildfires, the agency said. 

Winds will gust from 35 to 45 mph this afternoon into tomorrow. 

“Somewhat elevated fire weather conditions are expected,” NWS said. “The cooler temperatures will limit the overall threat.”