3 Big Things Today, Oct. 16, 2025

1. Wheat Futures Decline in Overnight Trading

Wheat futures were lower in overnight trading amid strong global production and favorable weather in the U.S. southern Plains. 

Global output was projected last month at 816.2 million metric tons in the 2025-2026 marketing year, up from 800.9 million tons in the previous season, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said last month. 

Russian output at the time was seen at 85 million metric tons, up from 81.6 million tons a year earlier. 

Consultancy SovEcon said it now expects wheat production in Russia, the world’s largest exporter of the grain, at 87.8 million metric tons. That’s up from a previous outlook for 87.2 million tons. 

Also weighing on prices overnight is favorable weather in the U.S. southern Plains where winter planting continues. 

About 66% of the winter crop was in the ground at the start of the week, according to a Reuters poll. The weekly crop progress report from USDA is unavailable due to the ongoing government shutdown. 

Intermittent rain is expected in the southern Plains for the rest of the week, said Don Keeney, an agricultural meteorologist with Maxar. 

Rainfall has been near expectations, favoring west-central Kansas, western Oklahoma and northwestern Texas, he said. 

“(The) forecast is unchanged,” Keeney said. “Rain should favor northern areas on Thursday, and east-central areas on Friday and Saturday. Dry Sunday.” 

Wheat futures for December delivery were down 2 3/4¢ to $4.96 a bushel overnight on the Chicago Board of Trade, and Kansas City futures lost 2 1/2¢ to $4.85 3/4 a bushel. 

Corn futures rose 1/4¢ to $4.17 a bushel. 

Soybean futures for November delivery rose 3 1/2¢ to $10.27 3/4 a bushel. Soymeal rose 20¢ to $276.10 a short ton and soybean oil futures added 0.3¢ to 51.1¢ a pound. 

2. Southwest Iowa Crops Look Good as Harvest Rolls On

Iowa corn and soybean growers continue to harvest their crops after conditions were mostly favorable during the growing season. 

While official data isn’t available due to the government shutdown, a Reuters poll this week estimated the U.S. corn harvest at 44% complete and soybean collection at 58% finished. 

In Page County, Iowa, tucked in the southwestern corner of the state, Darin Proffit, 32, said it was wet through much of the growing season, which led to the spread of fungal diseases including southern rust and corn leaf blight.

“Our soybeans are, in my opinion, phenomenal, but our corn got hit with diseases — pick one and it got it,” he said. “We have some landowners and we ourselves didn’t fungicide a couple of fields. Stuff that didn’t get fungicide on corn is in general about 50 bushels under — 50 to 70 bushels in some areas.” 

Proffit, who’s also a Dekalb Asgrow independent seed dealer, said he put fungicide on most of his corn, which paid off this year “a thousand percent.” 

The harvest has been progressing, though farmers in his area have had to switch back and forth between collecting corn and beans due to recent rain.

Proffit said he’s managed to collect about 45% of his corn and 40% of his beans. 

“It’s been a pretty erratic fall,” he said. “A lot of people switched back and forth between corn and soybeans because of the cloudy mornings. Last Sunday we had 4 inches of rain so we went back to corn, but today we finally got going on soybeans and then we get more cloudy weather.” 

The crops in his area of Iowa look better than average, Proffit said, which seemed to have surprised a lot of people. 

“It goes without saying that everybody’s bean crop is phenomenal,” he said. “Everybody’s been shocked, and corn that’s had fungicide is fine.” 

3. Scattered Storms Possible in Central South Dakota

Scattered thunderstorms are possible this afternoon in parts of central South Dakota, according to the National Weather Service.

The main hazard associated with the storms will be lightning, the agency said. 

Dense fog is also expected to linger in the area throughout the morning, though visibility should improve as the day rolls on, NWS said. 

In central Iowa, meanwhile, isolated thunderstorms are forecast this morning. Severe weather isn’t expected. 

More storms may rumble through the area on Friday and Saturday. 

“The overall severe weather treat appears low, but a few storms could be strong in southern and southeastern Iowa, mainly late Friday,” NWS said.