3 Big Things Today, Oct. 1, 2025

1. Wheat Futures Lower as Stocks Top Forecasts

Wheat futures were lower in overnight trading after a quarterly report showed stockpiles at the beginning of September were higher than expected. 

Inventories on Sept. 1 totaled 2.12 billion bushels, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said. That’s up 6% year over year and topped analyst expectations for 2.041 billion bushels. 

Corn futures also declined overnight after USDA’s stockpiles estimate topped forecasts. 

Stockpiles on Sept. 1 were reported at 1.532 billion bushels, the agency said. While that’s down 13% annually, it easily topped trade projections for inventories of 1.336 billion bushels. 

The stockpiles report contained a special note saying USDA increased its estimate for corn and soybean production by 25 million bushels and 7.74 million bushels, respectively. 

Soybean inventories at the start of September totaled 316 million bushels, down 8% year-over-year and below analyst forecasts for 322 million bushels. 

Prices also were capped overnight as the U.S. harvest rolls on amid mostly favorable weather in the Midwest. 

About 18% of U.S. corn was harvested as of Sunday and 19% of soybeans were in the bin, USDA said. Dry weather in much of the Corn Belt should allow farmers to accelerate crop collection. 

Wheat futures for December delivery fell 4¢ to $5.04 a bushel overnight on the Chicago Board of Trade. Kansas City futures were down 5½¢ to $4.92¼ a bushel. 

Corn futures fell 2¼¢ to $4.13¼ a bushel. 

Soybean futures for November delivery lost 4¾¢ to $9.97 a bushel. Soymeal dropped $1.90 to $271.40 a short ton and soybean oil futures gained 0.24¢ to 49.73¢ a pound. 

2. China Sorghum, Corn Imports Forecast to Fall

Chinese sorghum and corn imports are expected to drop in the 2025/2026 marketing year, according to an attaché report from USDA’s office in Beijing. 

Sorghum imports are forecast at 5 million metric tons, down from the September outlook for 7.6 million metric tons, the report said. 

The Asian nation brought in only 2.6 million metric tons of sorghum from January through July, half of what it imported during the same timeframe a year earlier. 

China has moved away from importing feed grains from the U.S., historically its preferred provider, amid trade uncertainties, the attaché report said. 

“Retaliatory tariffs led to a sharp decrease in sorghum imports from the U.S.,” USDA said. “China has not booked any U.S. sorghum shipments for he current or next marketing year since March 2025.” 

Corn imports for the 2025/2026 season, meanwhile, are pegged at 7 million metric tons, down from the September outlook for 10 million tons. 

Beijing has been promoting increased domestic production in a bid to discourage grain imports and protect the interests of local farmers, the report said. 

China hasn’t yet booked any corn shipments from the U.S. for the current marketing year or beyond since March, USDA said, though the outlook for imports of 7 million metric tons suggests improvements in market conditions and improved trade relations soon. 

3. Scattered Storms Expected in Nebraska, Kansas

Scattered thunderstorms are forecast for later this morning in parts of south-central Nebraska and north-central Kansas, according to the National Weather Service. 

The storms are not expected to produce severe weather, though more are projected to rumble through the area starting Saturday, the agency said. 

Isolated showers are also forecast for parts of southern Kansas this morning, but no strong storms are expected in the area. 

Temperatures in central Kansas will be unseasonably warm for the rest of the week and into the weekend, NWS said. 

Values will likely hit upwards of 10 or 15 degrees Fahrenheit above normal, NWS said.