3 Big Things Today, Nov. 11, 2025

1. Soybean Futures Down Slightly in Overnight Trading

Soybean futures were modestly lower in overnight trading as China has yet to announce a major purchase of U.S. soybeans. 

A trade deal between the U.S. and China was signed by Presidents Donald Trump and Xi Jinping in the last week of October. 

Under the terms of the agreement, China will buy 12 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans this year and an additional 25 million tons in each of the next three years. 

Beijing restored licenses for Louis Dreyfus, CHS and EGT last week, giving farmers and investors hope that announcements indicating major buys would soon follow. 

Still, thus far neither the U.S., China nor any private shipper or buyer has announced a major purchase by the Asian country. 

Underpinning prices overnight, however, is optimism that the U.S. government will soon reopen. 

The U.S. Senate on Monday night passed a bill to fund the government through January with the support of almost all Republicans and eight Democrats. The bill now heads to the House. If it passes there, it will be sent to Trump, who said he supports the bill, for final approval. 

The government shutdown, which started on Oct. 1, is now the longest in the country’s history. 

Soybean futures for November delivery fell 3 1/4¢ to $11.26 3/4 a bushel overnight on the Chicago Board of Trade. Soy meal was down $3.20 to $316.80 a short ton and soybean oil futures added 0.3¢ to 50.08¢ a pound. 

Corn futures for December delivery were unchanged at $4.29 3/4 a bushel. 

Wheat futures for December delivery fell 1/2¢ to $5.35 1/4 a bushel, and Kansas City futures were down 1/2¢ to $5.26 1/2 a bushel. 

2. September Soybean Crush Likely Reached Record

Soybean processors likely crushed a record amount of the oilseeds in September as new facilities ramp up, according to a Reuters poll, as market-watchers continue to rely on private estimates amid the ongoing government shutdown. 

Crush totaled 205.4 million bushels in September, the Reuters survey said, according to a note to clients from CoBank. If realized, that would be a 10% month-over-month increase and the highest on record for the month. 

On a daily basis, crush likely rose 7.8% to 6.847 million bushels a day, the poll said. 

USDA’s Fats and Oilseeds report, which is usually released monthly, has been absent the past two months due to the shutdown. 

The National Oilseeds Processors Association earlier this month estimated September crush at 197.9 million bushels in September, up almost 12% year over year and a record for the month. 

Still, CoBank said, crushers are facing regulatory headwinds.

ADM last week said it now expects 2025 earnings of $3.25 to $3.50 a share versus the previous outlook for $4 a share due to the “current biofuel demand environment.” 

CoBank said it’s a mixed bag for soybean crush. 

“The expanded soybean crush capacity in the U.S. continues to be a positive for U.S. farmers who have struggled with lost export demand to China,” said Tanner Ehmke, the lead economist for grains and oilseeds in CoBank’s Knowledge Exchange research division. 

“Crushers, though, are struggling with policy uncertainty on biofuels. Although there are no signs of the crush pace slowing in 2026 as new plants become fully operational, the lack of biofuel policy guidance will continue to throttle domestic demand for soyoil and drag on margins.” 

3. Dry Weather Forecast for the Southern Plains

Dry weather is expected in the U.S. southern Plains this afternoon as winds pick up and humidity declines, according to the National Weather Service. 

Temperatures will reach into the 70s late this morning, wind speeds will increase and relative humidity is forecast to drop as low as 15%, the agency said. 

“Any open flame could quickly burn out of control with erratic behavior in these conditions,” NWS said. 

In Ohio, meanwhile, snow showers are expected, which may lead to slick roadways. 

Light snow is forecast this morning with some accumulations possible, the agency said. Untreated roads, overpasses and bridges will probably be slick throughout the day.