3 Big Things Today, March 17, 2025

1. Wheat Futures Surge in Overnight Trading

Wheat futures jumped in overnight trading after Russia’s forecast for domestic production was lowered and on growing concerns about grain supplies from Ukraine.

Russian consultancy IKAR late last week cut its forecast for Russian shipments of the grain to roughly 41 million metric tons from 42.5 million tons. 

The U.S. Department of Agriculture said in a monthly supply and demand report last week that it now projects Russian wheat exports at 45 million metric tons, down from the February outlook for 45.5 million tons. 

Strategie Grains said it cut its outlook for the European Union wheat crop to 127.5 million metric tons from 127.3 million tons. 

Also boosting prices this morning are ongoing worries about wheat from Ukraine. 

Russia, which first attacked Ukraine in February 2022, last week launched a missile strike on a ship loading wheat in the port town of Odesa, killing four. 

Ships and port infrastructure were also damaged in the attack. 

Wheat futures for May delivery jumped 11 3/4¢ to $5.68 3/4 a bushel overnight on the Chicago Board of Trade, while Kansas City futures surged 16 1/2¢ to $6.02 1/2 a bushel. 

Corn futures rose 4 3/4¢ to $4.63 1/4 a bushel. 

Soybeans for May delivery were up 3/4¢ to $10.16 3/4 a bushel. Soymeal was unchanged at $305.90 a short ton, and soy oil gained 0.11¢ to 41.7¢ a pound.

2. Investors Cut Bullish Bets on Corn Futures

Speculators slashed their bullish bets on corn to the lowest level in more than three months, according to data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

Investors held a net-long position, or bets on higher prices, of 132,412 corn futures contracts in the week that ended on March 11, the agency said. 

That’s down from 206,844 contracts the week prior and the smallest bullish position since Dec. 3.

Money managers, however, cut their bearish bets on soybeans, holding a net-short position, or bets on lower prices, of 7,922 futures contracts in soybeans, down from 24,525 contracts the previous week. 

In wheat, hedge funds and other large investment firms were bearish on hard-red winter wheat to the tune of 47,920 futures contracts last week, up from 38,550 contracts seven days earlier, CFTC said. 

Investors also held a net-short position of 76,346 futures contracts in soft-red winter wheat. That’s down from 82,646 contracts a week earlier, the agency said in its report. 

The weekly Commitment of Traders report from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission shows trader positions in futures markets.

The report provides positions held by commercial traders, or those using futures to hedge their physical assets; noncommercial traders, or money managers (also called large speculators); and nonreportables, or small speculators.

A net-long position indicates more traders are betting on higher prices, while a net-short position means more are betting futures will decline. 

3. Red-Flag Warnings Issued For Much of the Midwest

Red-flag warnings have been issued for much of the U.S. Midwest and winter-storm watches will take effect tomorrow in parts of Nebraska, Kansas, Iowa and Wisconsin, according to the National Weather Service. 

Winds will be sustained from 30 to 40 mph in southern South Dakota today and gust up to 65 mph, the agency said in a report early this morning. 

In the southern Plains, maximum wind gusts are forecast at 45 miles an hour and relative humidity will drop to 5 to 10%.

Winter-storm watches will take effect in northern Kansas and southern Nebraska starting tomorrow night and lasting through Wednesday morning, NWS said. 

Blizzard conditions are possible with an inch of snow expected along with winds gusting up to 55 mph. 

“Visibilities may drop below a quarter-mile due to falling and blowing snow,” the agency said. “Strong winds could cause tree damage.”