3 Big Things Today, March 12, 2025

1. Soybean, Grain Futures Lower Overnight 

Soybean and grain futures dropped in overnight trading amid uncertainty over tariffs after President Donald Trump suspended his plan to double levies on steel and aluminum and Ontario rescinded the 25% tariffs it had placed on electricity flowing to the U.S. 

Trump on Tuesday threatened to double tariffs on shipments of steel and aluminum to 50%, leading the government of Ontario to pull back on its threat to impose 25% levies on electricity it sends to several northern U.S. states. 

Steel and aluminum imports into the U.S. will still face a 25% tariff, which went into effect this morning. The European Union said it will impose retaliatory tariffs on $28 billion worth of U.S. goods starting in April. 

The ongoing trade war with several trading partners including Canada, Mexico and China — the U.S.’s three largest trading partners — has roiled commodity and equity markets. 

The U.S. has threatened to impose large tariffs on Canada and Mexico but has rolled back most until April 2. Chinese goods imported into the U.S. now face a 20% levy, which was doubled last week.

Chinese tariffs on U.S. good — including some agricultural products — went into effect on Monday. 

Soybeans for May delivery lost 7 3/4¢ to $10.03 1/2 a bushel overnight on the Chicago Board of Trade. Soymeal was down $1.50 to $300.30 a short ton, and soy oil fell 0.12¢ to 41.81¢ a pound.

Corn futures dropped 6 1/2¢ to $4.63 3/4 a bushel. 

Wheat futures for May delivery fell 5¢ to $5.51 3/4 a bushel, while Kansas City futures lost 4 1/2¢ to $5.67 1/2 a bushel. 

2. USDA Leaves U.S., Global Stocks Little Changed

USDA left most of its forecast for U.S. and global ending stocks little changed in its monthly supply and demand reports released yesterday. 

Domestic corn inventories at the end of the 2024-2025 marketing year were forecast by the agency at 1.54 billion bushels, unchanged from the February outlook. 

Analysts polled by Reuters expected the government to drop its projection to 1.516 billion bushels. 

Soybean stockpiles at the end of August were again pegged at 380 million bushels for a second straight month. That was just above expectations for 379 million. 

Wheat stocks at the end of the grain’s marketing year on May 31 will likely total 819 million bushels, up from the previous outlook for 794 million bushels and well above trade expectations for 797 million bushels. 

Global corn stockpiles at the end of the current year, meanwhile, were projected at 288.94 million metric tons, down from 290.31 million a month earlier, USDA said. That was just below trade forecasts for 289.93 million tons. 

Soybean inventories worldwide are seen at 121.41 million metric tons, down from the previous outlook for 124.34 million tons. That’s also below the outlook compiled by Reuters for 124.56 million tons. 

Wheat stocks globally are now pegged at 260.08 million metric tons, up from the February forecast for 257.56 million tons and trade expectations for 257.62 million tons. 

3. Dry Weather Persists in the Southern Plains

Dry weather continues in much of the southern Plains where hard-red winter wheat is growing. 

Red-flag warnings have been issued for much of western Kansas, eastern Colorado and the eastern half of New Mexico, according to National Weather Service maps. 

Winds in western Kansas will be sustained from 20 to 30 mph and gust up to 35 mph, the agency said. Relative humidity will drop to around 11%. 

High-wind warnings have been issued for much of the Texas panhandle, NWS said. Winds will blow from 35 to 45 mph this afternoon and gust up to 70 mph. 

“Dangerous winds could blow down trees and power lines,” the agency said. “Widespread power outages are possible. Travel could be difficult, especially for high-profile vehicles.”