3 Big Things Today, July 25, 2025

1. Soybean Futures Lower on China Concerns

Soybean futures were lower in overnight trading on concerns about exports to China, as the Asian nation curbs hog production. 

China plans to cut the number of breeding sows to reduce its overall hog population and bring prices down. 

That, in turn, will limit soy meal consumption and imports. 

Overcapacity in the Chinese hog market has led to oversupply and deflation. Cash hog prices have dropped almost 29% since last August, Reuters reported, citing consultancy MySteel. 

Also weighing on prices are concerns about the ongoing trade war between the U.S. and China that may lead to further tensions between the world’s largest economies. 

In recent months, China has moved to increase imports from South American countries. The first cargoes of soybeans from Argentina were booked at the end of June, as Beijing looks to expand its sourcing options amid the ongoing trade war with the U.S. 

Dismal soybean sales to overseas buyers didn’t help overnight futures. 

Exporters sold 160,900 metric tons of beans for export in the week that ended July 17. That was down 41% from the previous week and 59% from the prior four-week average, the USDA said. 

China was not on the list of buyers. The Netherlands purchased 116,800 tons of U.S. beans, the USDA said; Mexico was in for 67,900 tons; and Egypt bought 57,800 tons.

Soybean futures for November delivery dropped 6¢ to $10.18¼ a bushel overnight on the Chicago Board of Trade. Soy meal was down $1.40 to $281.70 a short ton, and soybean oil fell 0.19¢ to 56.15¢ a pound.

Corn futures for December delivery lost 2¢ to $4.18¾ a bushel. 

Wheat for September delivery fell 1¾¢ to $5.39¾ a bushel, while Kansas City futures dropped 1½¢ to $5.27 a bushel. 

2. Commercial Meat Output Down Year-Over-Year

Red meat production in June fell 1% year-over-year, as beef output declined, according to a report from the Ag Department. 

Total meat output fell to 4.22 billion pounds last month from 4.26 billion during the same month in 2024, the agency said. 

Beef production was down 2% year-over-year to 2.09 billion pounds. Cattle slaughter dropped 4% annually to 2.43 million head, while live weights were up 26 pounds to 1,408 pounds. 

Pork output, meanwhile, rose narrowly to 2.12 billion pounds. 

Hog slaughter rose 1% to 9.97 million head, though live weights were down 1 pound to 286 pounds, the USDA said. 

Veal production was reported at just 2 million pounds, a 34% year-over-year decline, as calf slaughter plunged 39% from June 2024, the agency said. Live weights were up 27 pounds to 286 pounds. 

Red meat production from the beginning of January through the end of June totaled 26.7 billion pounds, down 2% from the same period last year. 

Beef production in the first half of the year fell 2%, pork declined 1%, and veal plunged 39%, the USDA reported. 

3. Hot Weather, Flooding Expected in Corn Belt

Hot weather and flooding dominate U.S. weather maps this morning, as excessive rain is expected in parts of Kansas, Missouri, and Nebraska. Heat advisories and warnings have been issued from Texas to Ohio. 

Heat indexes in eastern Missouri and western Illinois are expected to reach as high as 114°F this afternoon, the National Weather Service (NWS) reported early this morning. 

Values in southern Illinois and Indiana are predicted to hit 105°F, the agency said. 

In southeastern Nebraska and northwestern Missouri, excessive rainfall has saturated soils. More rain is likely to run off, leading to flooding of rivers, streams and other flood-prone locations, the NWS said. 

“Parts of far southeast Nebraska recorded heavy rain over the past 24 hours, with more heavy rain possible this afternoon and evening,” the agency said.