3 Big Things Today, July 18, 2025

1. Sharp Increase in Corn and Soybean Markets

Shortly after 6:00 a.m. CT, December corn was up 6¾¢ at $4.27¾ per bushel.

November soybeans were 13¾¢ higher at $10.40¼ per bushel. December soymeal was $3.70 more to $287.20 a short ton, and December soy oil increased 0.37¢ to 56.52¢ a pound.

September wheat markets were mixed in the early morning. CBOT wheat was up 9½¢ at $5.43 per bushel. KC wheat jumped 12¼¢ at $5.29¾ per bushel. Minneapolis wheat fell 1¾¢ at $5.78¼ per bushel.

“Winter wheat harvest is progressing with no negative surprises yet. The spring wheat crop tour takes place next week and will likely dictate where prices trend as we approach the spring wheat harvest window,” Bob Linneman, commodities broker of Kluis Commodity Advisors said. “Traders are watching the U.S. dollar index as futures have flirted with the key 50-day moving average since Tuesday. A close above this key technical line could trigger short covering as we have not seen a close above this line since February.”

2. Corn Export Sales Reach Marketing-Year Low

Export sales of grains fell this past week, corn specifically reached a marketing-year low according to the U.S. Export Sales report released by the USDA. 

Net corn sales to overseas buyers were down 92% from the week before and 89% from the four-week average at 97,600 metric tons. 

Japan purchased 187,900 metric tons, Mexico took 79,300 tons, Colombia bought 78,600 tons, South Korea was in for 77,100 tons, and unknown destinations were at 390,700 tons.

Corn exports for the week fell 28% at 1.21 million metric tons, USDA said.

Soybean sales in the seven days that ended on July 10 totaled 271,900 metric tons, 46% lower than the previous week and 39% under the average, the agency said. 

Taiwan bought 68,800 metric tons, Germany was in for 63,400 tons, Algeria bought 32,000 tons, and Egypt was at 25,400 tons.

Soybean exports totaled 276,400 metric tons, 30% weaker than last week.

Wheat sales were reported at 494,400 metric tons, down 13% week-over-week but up 8% from the four-week average, the government said. 

Mexico bought 83,500 metric tons, Venezuela was in for 71,600 tons, South Africa took 51,800 tons, and Japan purchased 49,100 tons.

Wheat exports were down 3% at 432,900 metric tons, the USDA said in its report.

3. Severe Weather and Flash Flood Risk Ahead

The weekend holds a risk for severe weather in the Corn Belt according to the National Weather Service’s (NWS) Weather Prediction Center (WPC).

The NWS said an unusual flow pattern for July and a weak negative anomaly could potentially squeeze a jet stream to be stronger than average.

“The front at the base of the Westerlies wavers around the Ohio Valley, the southern Great Lakes, the Southern Appalachians, and the Mid-Atlantic states over the next few days, providing the focus for thunderstorms with greater organization than typical for July which leads to both an enhanced flash flood risk and severe weather risk from the Midwest eastward.” The NWS said, “The greatest severe weather risk lies from the Corn Belt into the southern Great Lakes on Saturday.”

The NWS added because of strong ridging aloft and above average moisture, uncomfortable heat in the 90s alongside high humidity is projected, leading to chances of moderate to major heat risks.