3 Big Things Today, July 10, 2025

1. Wheat Surges on Dry Weather in Canada

Wheat futures jumped in overnight trading on concerns about adverse weather in the Canadian Prairies and on some technical buying amid lower prices in the past week. 

Little precipitation is forecast for the Canadian Prairies, where wheat and canola are growing, from tomorrow through at least Sunday, said Don Keeney, an agricultural meteorologist with Maxar. 

“Limited rain through the weekend will allow moisture shortages and stress to build further on spring wheat,” the forecaster said in a note to clients. 

Rain in the U.S. northern Plains will improve crop prospects for spring wheat, though precipitation in the southern Plains, where hard red winter wheat is being collected, will slow the harvest, Keeney said. 

Also giving prices a boost this morning is some technical buying amid lower prices in the past week. 

Investors who were short the market, or had bet on lower prices, likely bought back contracts and closed their positions. 

Soybean futures were slightly higher and corn was unchanged after President Donald Trump said the U.S. would impose a 50% tariff on Brazilian goods starting on Aug. 1 in retaliation for its prosecution of Jair Bolsonaro who Trump said in a letter to current Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva. 

Trump has said he considers Bolsonaro a friend and called the prosecution a “witch hunt.” Bolsonaro has been charged with attempting to overturn his 2022 election loss to Lula. 

Lula has said Brazil will respond with reciprocal tariffs should the U.S. impose the threatened levies. 

Wheat for September delivery added 5¾¢ to $5.52¾ a bushel overnight on the Chicago Board of Trade, while Kansas City futures jumped 9¼¢ to $5.33¼ a bushel. 

Corn futures for December delivery were unchanged at $4.15½ a bushel. 

Soybean futures for November delivery rose 1½¢ to $10.08¾ a bushel. Soymeal was up 50¢ to $283.40 a short ton and soybean oil gained 0.38¢ to 53.65¢ a pound.

2. Ethanol Production Rises to Three-Week High

Ethanol output rose to the highest level in three weeks while inventories declined, according to data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA). 

Production increased to an average of 1.085 million barrels a day in the week that ended on July 4, the agency said in a report. 

That’s up from 1.076 million barrels the previous week and the highest since the seven days that ended on June 13. 

In the Midwest, by far the biggest producing region, output rose to 1.03 million barrels, on average, from 1.016 million the week prior, also the lowest since mid-June, EIA said. 

Gulf Coast production dropped to 24,000 barrels a day from 28,000 a week earlier, and Rocky Mountain output fell to 9,000 barrels per day from 10,000. 

East Coast output was unchanged at 12,000 barrels per day, and West Coast production was steady at 10,000 barrels for the third straight week, the agency said. 

The Rocky Mountain region saw the week’s only decline, falling by a thousand barrels to an average of 9,000 per day. 

Ethanol inventories in the week through July 4 fell to 23.959 million barrels, EIA said. That’s down from 24.117 million a week earlier and the lowest level since June 6. 

3. Severe Weather Possible in Ohio Thursday

Severe thunderstorms are possible over the next few days in parts of Ohio and counties in northern Indiana and southern Michigan, the National Weather Service said in a statement this morning. 

Isolated storms are forecast for areas of northern Ohio this afternoon with damaging winds and heavy rainfall the main concerns, the agency said. 

Extremely hot weather is expected this weekend in the area with temperatures Saturday ranging 95–100° Fahrenheit. 

Storms are also forecast overnight in parts of northern Indiana and southern Michigan, though they’re not expected to be severe until Saturday morning, NWS said. 

Scattered storms are also possible today and tonight in much of North Dakota, where spring wheat is growing. 

“The expected hazards are hail up to the size of ping-pong balls and damaging wind gusts up to 60 mph,” the agency said.