3 Big Things Today, January 15, 2025

1. Wheat futures down slightly overnight

Wheat futures were lower in overnight trading amid favorable weather in the Black Sea region. 

Precipitation in the form of a wintry mix fell earlier this week in the north Caucasus and western Volga Valley — both major growing regions in the area, said Don Keeney, an agricultural meteorologist with Maxar. 

Snow is forecast for parts of Belarus, northern Ukraine and the central region and rain is likely in the north Caucasus, he said. 

“Snow cover should build further in northern Russia,” Keeney said. “Winterkill threats will remain low.” 

Keeping prices from falling too far, however, is less-favorable weather in the U.S. where winterkill may be an issue. 

Snowfall in the southern Plains will offer increased protection for overwintering plants, but some parts of west-central Kansas and Nebraska likely will see some winterkill, Keeney said. 

The affliction, which is caused by extremely cold temperatures on uncovered wheat, likely will affect plants in the northwestern Midwest where soft-red winter varieties are overwintering. 

Wheat futures for March delivery fell 1 1/2¢ to $5.44 3/4 a bushel overnight on the Chicago Board of Trade, while Kansas City futures dropped 4 1/2¢ to $5.56 1/4 a bushel. 

Corn futures for March delivery were up 1 3/4¢ to $4.76 1/4 a bushel. 

Soybeans rose 1 1/4¢ to $10.48 3/4 a bushel. Soymeal added $2.30 to $308.10a short ton and soy oil declined 0.35¢ to 45.87¢ a pound.

2. Winter wheat acreage expected to rise next season

Winter wheat area will rise in the 2025-2026 marketing year that starts on June 1, reversing a longer-term trend in which acreage of the grain gave way to increased corn and soybean planting, the Ag Department said in a report. 

Planted area will rise 2% to 34.1 million acres, USDA said in its first forecast for the upcoming marketing year. 

Winter wheat acreage in the 2020-2021 season dropped to about 30.5 million, the lowest since 1909, according to government data. Planted area made aa comeback in the 2023-2024 season, rising to 36.7 million before lower prices led to a decline in the current marketing year.  

Acreage for hard red winter, soft red winter and white winter varieties are all expected to rise next season, the agency said. 

Harvested area for the 2025-2026 year hasn’t yet been estimated, but the trend is obviously similar to the amount of land planted with winter wheat. 

Farmers harvested 22.8 million acres of the grain in the 2020-2021 year, the lowest on record, but harvested area has rebounded since, rising to 26.1 million acres in the current season, government data show. 

3. Cold front expected to hit the southern Plains

A cold front is forecast for the southern Plains where hard red winter wheat is overwintering this weekend, according to the National Weather Service. 

Temperatures will fall to as low as 20 degrees Fahrenheit in the Oklahoma and Texas panhandles, the agency said. 

“This event will also be followed by chances of precipitation over the weekend with latest seeing 30% to 50% chance of some amount of accumulation,” NWS said. 

Still, there is some uncertainty around how intense the air mass will be when it hits the area. Some locations may see temperatures drop as much as 40 degrees in a 24-hour period, the agency said. 

The frigid weather will move into central and eastern Kansas and may last into early next week. 

Wind chills in the region are expected to fall to minus-15 degrees Fahrenheit in the overnights from Saturday through Tuesday, NWS said.