3 Big Things Today, Jan. 23, 2025

1. Grains, Soybeans Lower in Overnight Trading

Grain and soybean futures were lower in overnight trading amid favorable weather in Brazil and on concerns about demand from China. 

Relief may be in store for parts of southern Brazil and Paraguay in the next week, Commodity Weather Group said in a note to clients. 

In northern Brazil, dry weather will aid early soybean harvest, but the weather is expected to turn wet again, at least briefly, the forecaster said. 

Concerns about demand from China, the world’s largest importer of soybeans, also are weighing on prices this morning. 

USDA’s attaché in Beijing said in a report that China’s grain output is now estimated at 706.5 million metric tons, up 1.6% due to increased planted area and higher yields. 

Corn production is now forecast at 294.9 million metric tons, a 2.1% increase, and wheat output will increase 2.6% to 140.1 million metric tons. Rice production is projected to improve 0.4% to 145.3 million metric tons. 

“Lower corn prices boosted corn’s use in feed and industrial applications, reducing reliance on wheat and rice,” the report said. 

Corn imports are forecast to fall to 14 million metric tons from 23.4 million the previous year, while wheat purchases are forecast to fall 37% amid improved domestic output. 

Corn futures fell 1¢ to $4.83¼ a bushel overnight on the Chicago Board of Trade.

Wheat for March delivery lost 2¾¢ to $5.51¼ a bushel, while Kansas City futures were down 2½¢ to $5.72¼ a bushel. 

Soybean futures for March delivery dropped 2¾¢ to $10.53¼ a bushel. Soymeal lost 70¢ to $315.10 a short ton and soy oil fell 0.01¢ to 44.41¢ a pound. 

2. Australian Wheat Output Surges Despite Woes

Australian wheat output will rise to the third-highest level on record in the current marketing year despite challenges during the growing season, according to a report this week from USDA’s attaché in its Canberra office. 

Production will jump to 32 million metric tons in the 2024/2025 marketing year, the agency said. That’s unchanged from an earlier forecast and up from the 26 million tons Australian farmers produced a year earlier. 

Planted area is up 10% from the prior 10-year average and the production estimate is 20% higher than normal, USDA said. 

“Achieving this result would be extraordinary given the seasonal challenges faced by growers in southern New Wales, Victoria, South Australia and Western Australia,” the attaché said. “In contrast, northern New South Wales and Queensland experienced favorable conditions but typically collectively account for less than 20% of national wheat production.” 

Output estimates were supported by grain received from GrainCorp, Viterra, and CBH, the country’s three main grain handling firms.

Australian wheat exports, meanwhile, will jump 26% to 24 million metric tons this year. That would be the fourth-highest level on record, USDA said. 

3. Snow Forecast for Parts of Iowa, Illinois

Light snow is expected in eastern Iowa and northern Illinois throughout the morning, according to the National Weather Service. 

While only about another inch is expected on top of what’s already fallen, accumulations may be enough to reduce visibility and make roads slick, the agency said. 

In central and eastern Illinois, scattered snow showers will move across the area, potentially making roads slippery. 

Wind chills overnight into Friday may fall to around minus-15° Fahrenheit in the area, NWS said.