3 Big Things Today, Feb. 7, 2025

1. Soybean Futures Lower in Overnight Trading

Soybean futures declined overnight amid a disappointing export sales report and favorable weather in parts of South America. 

Sales of U.S. beans in the week through Jan. 30 totaled 387,700 metric tons, down 12% from the previous week and 40% from the prior four-week average, the Department of Agriculture said in a report late yesterday. 

China was the big buyer at 208,700 tons, followed by the Netherlands at 125,200 tons, and Egypt at 107,900 tons. Mexico purchased 63,700 tons and South Korea bought 60,900 tons of U.S. supplies, the agency said. 

The total would’ve been higher but an unnamed country canceled orders for 262,800 tons and Spain nixed shipments of 53,800 tons. 

Also weighing on prices overnight was favorable weather conditions in parts of Brazil and Argentina. 

Drier weather in the center-west of Brazil will aid fieldwork, and dry weather in southern growing areas of the country is expected to ease in week two, Commodity Weather Group said in a note to clients. 

Rain has fallen in parts of Argentina in the past two days, limiting stress to a quarter of the South American nation’s soybean and corn areas, the forecaster said. 

Soybean futures for March delivery fell 4½¢ to $10.56 a bushel overnight on the Chicago Board of Trade. Soymeal lost $1.60 to $304.80 a short ton and soy oil dropped 0.13¢ to 45.27¢ a pound. 

Corn futures fell 2¢ to $4.93¼ a bushel. 

Wheat lost 1¾¢ to $5.86 a bushel, while Kansas City futures were up a tick to $6.07¾4 a bushel. 

2. Ag Receipts to Fall, Direct Payments to Surge in 2025

Cash receipts from the sale of agricultural products in the U.S. is forecast to decrease modestly in 2025 but direct government payments are expected to surge, according to a report from USDA’s Economic Research Service (ERS). 

Sales of ag commodities will fall 0.3% to $515 billion this year, the government said. 

Crop receipts will fall by 2.3% year over year amid lower soybean and corn income, which will partially be offset by a 1.4% increase in receipts for animals and animal products. 

Direct government payments, meanwhile, will rise by more than 354% in 2025 to $42.4 billion. The increase is forecast due to “supplemental and ad hoc disaster assistance” to farmers and ranchers this year. 

Production expenses will likely fall 0.6% to $450.4 billion.

“Feed, fertilizer (including lime and soil conditioners), and pesticide expenses are expected to see the largest dollar declines in 2025,” USDA said. 

Average net cash income is forecast at $128,900 per farm, up 11% from 2024, the government said. All nine USDA ERS Farm Resource Regions are projected to see an increase this year. 

3. Red Flag Warnings Issued for the Southern Plains

Red flag warnings have been issued for parts of the southern Plains amid extremely dry weather, according to National Weather Service maps. 

Winds in the Oklahoma and Texas panhandles will be sustained from 15 to 25 mph this afternoon with gusts of up to 40 mph in the forecast, the agency said. 

Relative humidity will drop to around 6%. The warnings will last from 11 a.m.–7 p.m. local time today. 

Further north, winter weather is rolling through the northern Plains as advisories have been issued from Oregon to Lake Michigan, NWS maps show. 

In southern North Dakota and northern South Dakota, as much as 5 inches of snow are expected tomorrow, the agency said. Roads will be slippery and blowing snow could reduce visibility in the area. 

In central and northern Wisconsin, 3–6 inches of snow are forecast starting overnight into Saturday, NWS said.