3 Big Things Today, Feb. 28, 2025

1. Soybean Futures Up Modestly Overnight

Soybean futures were narrowly higher in overnight trading amid projections for fewer planted acres and lower ending stocks in the next marketing year. 

Area planted to soybeans in the U.S. in the 2025/2026 marketing year that starts on Sept. 1 are now forecast at 84 million acres, the Department of Agriculture said in a report at its annual Agricultural Outlook Forum. 

That’s down from 87.1 million acres planted a year earlier, agency data show. 

Production in the next marketing year is forecast at 4.37 billion bushels on yield of 52.5 bushels an acre, USDA said. That would be up from the prior year’s 4.366 billion bushels on yield of 50.7 bushels an acre. 

Ending stockpiles are expected at around 320 million bushels, down from 380 million at the end of the 2024/2025 year, the agency said. 

Corn planted area is expected to surge next year, rising to 94 million acres from 90.6 million, USDA said. 

Production is now seen at 15.585 billion bushels, up from 14.867 billion a year earlier. Yield will rise to 181 bushels an acre form 179.3 bushels. 

Inventories at the end of the 2025/2026 marketing year are seen at 1.965 billion bushels, jumping from 1.54 billion in the current year, USDA said. 

Soybeans for May delivery rose 4¢ to $10.41¼ a bushel overnight on the Chicago Board of Trade. Soymeal added 50¢ to $300.70 a short ton, and soy oil gained 0.2¢ to 45.55¢ a pound. 

Corn futures rose 1¼¢ to $4.82¼ a bushel. 

Wheat futures for May delivery gained 4½¢ to $5.67 a bushel, while Kansas City futures added 2¾¢ to $5.88 a bushel. 

2. Ag Export Values Expected to Drop in 2025

The value of U.S. agricultural exports in fiscal 2025 is forecast to drop to the lowest level in five years, according to a report from the Ag Department. 

Shipments this year are projected to be valued at $170.5 billion, the agency said in a report late yesterday, up from the November outlook for $170 billion. 

That would still be the lowest level since 2020. 

Corn exports will total $13.8 billion, up from the prior forecast for $12.4 billion and up from the 2024 value of $13.5 billion, USDA said. 

Soybean shipments will total $21.2 billion, down from the previous outlook for $22.6 billion, and well lower than the $24.1 billion worth of goods shipped in 2024. 

Wheat exports will be valued at $5.8 billion this year, down from the $5.9 billion projected in November and the $5.85 billion shipped a year earlier, the agency said. 

Livestock, poultry, and dairy exports will be valued at $39.7 billion in fiscal 2025, up from the prior outlook for $39.3 billion, and ahead of the $38.8 billion in products shipped the year prior, the government said. 

Beef exports are pegged at $9.1 billion, up from the November forecast for $8.8 billion, but just behind the $9.17 billion that was shipped last year. 

Pork shipments will total $7.6 billion, up from the prior projection for $7.5 billion and ahead of the $9.17 billion exported in 2024, USDA said in its report. 

3. Extremely Dry Weather Forecast in Several States

Red flag warnings, an indicator of extremely dry weather, have been issued for parts of several Midwestern states, according to National Weather Service maps. 

Counties in South Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas, Iowa, Illinois, and Missouri fall under the warnings.

In central Iowa, winds will be sustained from 25–35 mph this afternoon with gusts of up to 50 mph in the forecast, the agency said. 

Relative humidity will fall as low as 25%. 

In southern Missouri, winds will gust up to 40 mph and humidity will fall into the teens, NWS said. 

“These conditions are conducive for the rapid spread and growth of uncontrolled wildfires,” the agency said. “Any fires that develop will catch and spread quickly. Outdoor burning is discouraged.”