3 Big Things Today, Feb. 12, 2025

1. Soybean Futures Decline in Overnight Trading

Soybean futures were lower in overnight trading after the U.S. Department of Agriculture unexpectedly left its forecast for domestic stockpiles unchanged in yesterday’s month supply and demand reports. 

Inventories at the end of the 2024/2025 marketing year on Aug. 31 are now projected at 380 million bushels, USDA said. 

That’s unchanged from the previous month’s outlook, but ahead of trade expectations for 376 million bushels. 

Corn stocks at the end of the marketing year are pegged at 1.54 billion bushels, the agency said, also steady with the January forecast but well in front of trade forecasts for 1.521 billion bushels. 

Wheat futures, meanwhile, were higher in overnight trading after the USDA outlook for ending stockpiles missed expectations. 

Inventories at the end of the grain’s marketing year on May 31 are now seen at 794 million bushels, USDA said, behind the previous outlook for 798 million and trade expectations for 801 million. 

The demand outlook for U.S. wheat improved as food use was increased by 4 million bushels, accounting for the lower month-to-month forecast. 

Soybean futures for March delivery fell 5¢ to $10.38½ a bushel overnight on the Chicago Board of Trade. Soymeal declined 80¢ to $295.80 a short ton and soy oil lost 0.08¢ to 46.05¢ a pound. 

Corn futures added ¼¢ to $4.84¼ a bushel. 

Wheat futures for March delivery gained 4¢ to $5.81 a bushel, while Kansas City futures were up 3¢ to $5.95¾ a bushel. 

2. Bean Estimates for Brazil, Argentina Miss Forecasts

Estimates for soybean production in Brazil and Argentina missed expectations while corn forecasts were mixed. 

The U.S. Ag Department yesterday projected Brazilian soybean output at 169 million metric tons, unchanged from the January estimate and below trade expectations for 170.2 million tons. 

Farmers in Argentina will produce 49 million metric tons, the agency said. That’s down from the previous month’s prediction for 52 million tons and below the trade outlook for 50.2 million. 

Corn production estimates from USDA were mixed. 

Output of the grain in Brazil is now seen at 126 million metric tons, down from the January forecast for 127 million tons and behind trade expectations for 126.7 million tons. 

Production in Argentina is now projected at 50 million metric tons, the agency said, down from the previous outlook for 51 million tons, but higher than the trade outlook for 49.1 million tons.

Global ending stocks for soybeans at the end of the 2024/2025 marketing year are now pegged at 124.3 million metric tons, down from the January outlook for 128.4 million tons and behind trade forecasts for 124.3 million. 

Corn inventories worldwide are seen at 290.3 million metric tons, USDA said, behind the prior projection of 293.3 million and trade expectations for 292.2 million tons. 

Wheat stockpiles globally are forecast at 257.6 million metric tons, missing the previous estimate for 258.8 million and trade projection for 258.6 million tons. 

3. Cold, Wintry Weather Expected from Texas to Maine

Winter is in full force as extremely cold weather invades the northern U.S. and winter storms hit the central Midwest. 

Extreme cold warnings will remain in effect until noon tomorrow in much of North Dakota where wind chills will drop as low as minus-50° Fahrenheit, the National Weather Service said in a report early this morning. The cold can cause frostbite in as little as 10 minutes. 

Winter storm warnings and winter weather advisories have been issued from the Texas panhandle through the Great Lakes to the Atlantic Ocean off Maine, the agency said. 

Heavy snow is forecast for tonight in parts of central and eastern Iowa, NWS said. As much as 7 inches of snow is expected in the area. 

In central Illinois, 2–4 inches of snow are projected, making roads and bridges slick and hazardous, the agency said.