3 Big Things Today, August 13, 2025

1. Soybean Futures Rise Overnight After Bullish Report

Soybean futures jumped in overnight trading after the U.S. Department of Agriculture lowered its forecast for production in the 2025-2026 marketing year. 

USDA, in its monthly supply and demand report yesterday, pegged soybean output at 4.292 billion bushels, down from the previous outlook for 4.335 billion bushels.

Yield estimates rose to 53.6 bushels an acre from the July projection of 52.5 bushels, but harvested area is now seen at 80.1 million acres versus the prior forecast for 82.5 million, the government said. 

Soybean stockpiles are now pegged at 290 million bushes versus the previous outlook for 310 million. 

Corn was modestly higher overnight after double-digit losses yesterday. 

Futures had plunged after USDA unexpectedly raised its forecast for yield and production to a record. 

Output in the 2025-2026 year that starts on Sept. 1 will total 16.742 billion bushels on yield of 188.8 bushels an acre, both of which would be records if realized, government data show. That’s up from the July outlook for 15.705 billion bushes on yield of 181 bushels an acre. 

The agency’s ending stocks outlook for corn was raised to 2.117 billion bushels from 1.66 billion. 

Soybean futures for November delivery jumped 9¢ to $10.41 3/4 a bushel overnight on the Chicago Board of Trade. Soymeal was up $1.10 to $293 a short ton and soybean oil added 0.28¢ to 53.42¢ a pound.

Corn futures for December delivery gained 1 1/4¢ to $3.95 3/4 a bushel. 

Wheat for September delivery rose 3/4¢ to $5.05 3/4 a bushel, while Kansas City futures were down 1¢ to $5.09 3/4 a bushel. 

2. Beef Production Down More Than Previously Expected

Beef output will likely fall more than previously expected in 2025 and 2026 amid reduced slaughter and lower dressed weights, the Ag Department said in a monthly report. 

Production this year is now forecast at 25.926 billion pounds, which if realized would be down 3.9% year over year, the agency said. USDA last month estimated beef output at 26.188 billion pounds. 

For 2026, production is now projected at 25.47 billion pounds, down 1.8% on an annual basis and down from the July outlook for 25.815 billion pounds. 

Pork output is forecast to fall this year after previous expectations for an increase. 

Production in 2025 is now seen at 27.747 billion pounds, a decrease from the year-earlier output of 27.789 billion. USDA in July expected output to rise to 28.041 billion pounds. 

In 2026, pork output is projected at 28.38 billion pounds, a 1% year-over-year increase, but down from the prior month’s forecast for 28.48 billion, the agency said. 

Steer prices are forecast to jump 21% in 2025 to $2.2706 a pound, up from the July projection of $2.2131 a pound. Barrows and gilts will increase to 69.32¢ a pound from 63.41¢ a pound last year. USDA last month pegged prices at 68.57¢ a pound. 

3. Storms Forecast For Parts of Northern Nebraska

Severe storms are expected tonight in counties in northern Nebraska, the National Weather Service said in a report early this morning. 

Damaging wind gusts up to 70 miles an hour and half-dollar size hail are the main threats associated with the storms, the agency said. A tornado or two can’t be ruled out. 

Further east, light storms in central and southern Illinois today and tonight will give way to extremely hot weather. 

Temperatures will rise Thursday and Friday and top 100 degrees Fahrenheit Saturday and Sunday, NWS said.