3 Big Things Today, April 7, 2025

1. Soybean, Grain Futures Little Changed Overnight

Soybean and grain futures were mostly little changed as investors weigh the effects of tariffs imposed by the U.S. and its trading partners. 

U.S. President Donald Trump last week announced a blanket 10% tariff rate on goods from all countries and higher rates on others. 

China, the world’s largest importer of soybeans, will face a 54% tariff rate starting April 9, according to data from the White House. Other countries including Japan and the UK also saw higher rates. 

Beijing retaliated by imposing a 34% tariff on all imports from the U.S. and said it would limit exports of rare earths that are used in manufacturing of tech items. 

Commodity and equity markets plunged last week after Trump announced the tariffs. While grain and soybean markets seemed to have stabilized this morning, the rout in global equities continues. 

Dow Jones futures lost another 1.6% this morning, S&P futures dropped 1.7% and the tech-heavy Nasdaq futures were off by more than 2%. Crude oil overnight fell below $60 a barrel to the lowest level since 2021 on recession fears. 

Soybean futures for May delivery rose ½¢ to $9.77½ a bushel overnight on the Chicago Board of Trade. Soymeal was up $2.30 to $285.40 a short ton, and soy oil lost 0.83¢ to 45.01¢ a pound.

Corn futures fell 2¢ to $4.58¼ a bushel.

Wheat futures for May delivery lost 1¢ to $5.28 a bushel, while Kansas City futures rose ¾¢ to $5.58¼ a bushel. 

2. Investors Raise Bullish Bets on Corn Before Tariffs

Investors increased their net-long positions, or bets on higher prices, in corn and reduced their bearish holdings in soybeans in the week through April 1, the day before the tariffs were announced, according to data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. 

Speculators held 128,433 futures contracts in corn, the agency said. That’s up from 73,920 contracts the week prior and the largest such position since March 11. 

Money managers cut their net short positions, or bets on lower prices, in soybeans to 3,681 futures contracts from 33,821 contracts the previous week, CFTC said. 

That’s the smallest bearish position since Feb. 25. 

In wheat, hedge funds and other large investment firms raised their net short positions in soft red winter futures to 100,584 contracts. That was the largest bearish position since Jan. 28. 

Investors were net short in hard red winter futures contracts by 41,961 contracts last week. That’s down from 44,541 contracts a week earlier and the smallest such position since March 4, CFTC said in its report. 

The weekly Commitment of Traders report from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission shows trader positions in futures markets.

The report provides positions held by commercial traders, or those using futures to hedge their physical assets; noncommercial traders, or money managers (also called large speculators); and nonreportables, or small speculators.

A net long position indicates more traders are betting on higher prices, while a net short position means more are betting futures will decline.

3. Freeze Warnings Issued From Kansas to Ohio

Freeze warnings have been issued for a wide swath of land stretching from northern Kansas east into southern Ohio and south into central Texas, according to National Weather Service maps.

Temperatures in northern Oklahoma and southern Kansas fell to around 26°F overnight, the agency said. The freeze warning in the area will remain in effect until 8 a.m. local time. 

In central and western Illinois, temperatures dropped as low as 25°F, NWS said. 

Flood warnings also have been issued for parts of southern Illinois, the southern half of Indiana and much of Kentucky, the maps show. 

From 4–7 inches of rain have fallen over the past several days in parts of central and southern Indiana amid multiple rounds of thunderstorms, NWS said. 

“Flooding impacts will continue despite minimal to no additional rainfall today,” the agency said.