3 Big Things Today, April 16, 2025

1. Soybeans, Grains Little Changed Overnight

Soybean and grain futures were little changed in overnight trading as investors weigh a weaker dollar against concerns about the ongoing trade war with China. 

The greenback was down another 0.6% in overnight trading against a basket of its counterparts. A weaker dollar makes U.S. goods more attractive on the global market. 

Investors are keeping an eye on demand as trade tensions between the U.S. and China, the world’s largest importer of soybeans, remain high. 

The tariff rate on Chinese goods imported into the U.S. may go as high as 245%, according to a White House fact sheet. 

China reported GDP growth of 5.4% in the first quarter of the year, though officials warned that due to the trade war, the nation’s economy may grow at a slower pace through the rest of the year. 

Chinese state media said the U.S. needs to “stop whining” about being a victim of trade policies and “put an end to its capricious and destructive behavior.” 

Soybean futures for May delivery fell 1¢ to $10.45½ a bushel overnight on the Chicago Board of Trade. Soymeal was unchanged at $301 a short ton, and soy oil dropped 0.01¢ to 47.83¢ a pound.

Corn futures rose 2¢ to $4.91½ a bushel.

Wheat futures for May delivery added 2¼¢ to $5.48¼ a bushel, while Kansas City futures dropped ¼¢ to $5.68¼ a bushel. 

2. Indonesian Palm Oil Output Forecast to Rise

Palm oil output in Indonesia, the world’s largest producer of the oilseed, is expected to rise next year on favorable weather and “adequate” fertilizer use, according to a report from the USDA’s office in Jakarta. 

Production of palm oil, which competes with soybean oil in international markets, will increase 3% to 47 million metric tons in the 2025/2026 marketing year, the attaché report said. 

The 2025 dry season in Indonesia is forecast to be normal this year with negligible impact from recurring weather events, USDA said, citing local weather agency BMKG. 

Fertilizer use is expected to continue to increase as prices have plunged from 14% to 59% since a peak in 2022, the report said. Producers have increased fertilizer use amid higher prices for palm oil since the 2023/2024 season. 

Palm oil exports will be capped at around 24 million metric tons amid increased domestic industrial use, the attaché said. That’s up from 23 million tons in the previous marketing year. 

Inventories at the end of the 2025/2026 year are now forecast at 5.29 million metric tons, up from 4.9 million tons a year earlier, USDA said in its report. 

3. Showers to Give Way to Dry Weather in Southern Plains

Showers that are possible in parts of the U.S. southern Plains this afternoon will give way to extremely dry weather starting tomorrow, according to the National Weather Service.

Thunderstorms are possible in the eastern Oklahoma and Texas panhandles this afternoon with some producing hail and damaging winds, the agency said. 

Dry weather will move in Thursday, leading to conditions ripe for wildfires. Southwest winds will gust up to 60 mph and relative humidity is expected to drop, NWS said. 

Further north, frost advisories have been issued for parts of central Illinois, Indiana, and Ohio, according to weather maps. 

Temperatures were forecast to range from 33–37° Fahrenheit overnight, resulting in frost formation, NWS said.