3 Big Things Today, April 10, 2025

1. Soybean, Grain Futures Higher Overnight

Soybean and grain futures were higher in overnight trading after U.S. President Donald Trump reduced tariffs for most countries, though the trade war with China continues to escalate. 

Tariff rates were dropped to 10% for most countries for 90 days, though levies on aluminum, steel, and automobiles remains at 25%. 

The European Union paused its planned tariffs on U.S. goods for the same amount of time, with leaders saying they wanted to negotiate in the meantime. 

Still, the rate on Chinese goods imported into the U.S. will be imposed at 125%. China responded by saying it would put an 84% tariff on good from the U.S.

Investors are also squaring positions ahead of today’s supply and demand reports from the U.S. Department of Agriculture. 

The agency likely will estimate corn ending stocks at the end of the 2024/2025 marketing year at 1.51 billion bushels, according to a Reuters poll, down from the March outlook for 1.54 billion bushels. 

Soybean inventories will probably be pegged at 379 million bushels, down slightly from the prior forecast for 380 million bushels. 

Wheat stocks at the end of the grain’s marketing year on May 31 will be projected at 825 million bushels, the survey said, up from a month-ago outlook for 819 million bushels. 

Soybean futures for May delivery rose 7¼¢ to $10.20 a bushel overnight on the Chicago Board of Trade. Soymeal was up $1.80 to $296.30 a short ton, and soy oil lost 0.05¢ to 46.14¢ a pound.

Corn futures gained 3½¢ to $4.77½ a bushel.

Wheat futures for May delivery added 3¼¢ to $5.45½ a bushel, while Kansas City futures rose 6 ¼¢ to $5.74¼ a bushel. 

2. Ethanol Production Drops to Lowest in Two Months

Ethanol output plunged to the lowest level in more than two months last week, while inventories rose, according to data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA).

Production of the biofuel dropped to an average of 1.021 million barrels in the seven days that ended on April 4, the agency said. 

That’s down from 1.063 million barrels the week prior and the lowest level since Jan. 24. 

In the Midwest, by far the biggest producing area, output averaged 966,000 barrels a day, down from 1.01 million barrels the previous week, EIA said. 

The decline in the region composed the entirety of the week’s losses as Rocky Mountain output was unchanged at 11,000 barrels a day and West Coast production was steady at 9,000 barrels, the government said. 

Two regions saw gains as East Coast production rose to an average of 12,000 barrels a day from 11,000 a week earlier, and the Gulf Coast saw a bump to 23,000 barrels from 21,000 barrels, EIA said. 

Ethanol inventories in the week through April 4 rose to 27.034 million barrels. That’s up from 26.612 million the week prior, the agency said in its report.

3. Red Flag Warnings Issued for South Dakota, Nebraska

Red flag warnings have been issued for much of South Dakota and Nebraska and counties in north-central Kansas, according to the National Weather Service.

Winds in central South Dakota will be sustained this afternoon from 15–25 mph and gust up to 35 mph, the agency said. 

Relative humidity will drop to around 18%.

In southern Nebraska and northern Kansas, winds will be sustained from 20–30 mph and gusts of up to 35 mph are in the forecast. Humidity will fall as low as 19% in the area, NWS said. 

“Any fires that develop will spread quickly,” the agency said. “Outdoor burning is not recommended.”