Winter Wheat Emergence Lagging Behind in 4 States

As of Oct. 27, 56% of the U.S. winter wheat crop has emerged, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said in the latest Crop Progress report. This is 5 percentage points behind the national five-year average.

Emergence has begun in each of the top 18 winter wheat growing states, with California last at just 10% emerged. North Carolina is close behind, with 11% of the winter wheat crop having emerged. 

Planting is still underway in 17 of the top 18 states, with only Washington having all of its crop in the ground so far. Nationwide, 80% of winter wheat planting is complete — 4 percentage points behind the five-year average.

Crop condition is poor overall for winter wheat in the U.S., with 7% rated very poor, 16% poor, 39% fair, 33% good, and 5% excellent by USDA.

Four of the top states have fallen 8 percentage points or more behind their five-year winter wheat emergence averages — Arkansas, Nebraska, Oklahoma, and South Dakota. 

Arkansas Winter Wheat Progress

USDA said 23% of Arkansas’ winter wheat crop has emerged as of Oct. 27. The five-year average for the state is 31%. 

Arkansas is also behind in winter wheat planting, with 48% of the crop in the ground as of Oct. 27 — 4 percentage points behind the five-year average of 52%. This is right in line with 2023 progress, when 49% of the crop was in at this point in the season. 

This means 25% of Arkansas’ winter wheat crop is in the ground but has yet to emerge.

USDA rated Arkansas’ wheat crop 23% very poor, 30% poor, 37% fair, and 10% in good condition. It is currently the worst-rated wheat crop in the country in terms of condition.

One reason for slow progress could be drought conditions in the state. The latest Drought Monitor report released Oct. 31 said 80.3% of Arkansas is feeling some level of drought, with western Arkansas faring the worst. Much of western Arkansas is in severe drought, with Benton County in the northwest corner of the state suffering from extreme drought. 

Nebraska Winter Wheat Progress

More than 80% of Nebraska’s winter wheat crop (81%) has emerged as of Oct. 27, USDA said. Not only is that number 9 percentage points behind the state’s five-year average of 90%, but Nebraska is also running 12 percentage points behind its mark from Oct. 27, 2023 of 93%. 

At 99% done with planting its winter wheat crop, Nebraska is waiting for 18% of its planted crop to emerge. 

USDA rated Nebraska’s winter wheat 9% very poor, 20% poor, 37% fair, 31% good, and 3% excellent.

As of the latest Drought Monitor report, all of Nebraska is experiencing some form of drought stress. More than 76% of the state is in severe drought or worse. 

Oklahoma Winter Wheat Progress

Oklahoma is a long way behind its five-year average in winter wheat emergence as of Oct. 27, USDA said. Only 36% of its crop has emerged, 17 percentage points behind progress at the same point in 2023 (53%) and a staggering 26 percentage points below the five-year average for Oklahoma of 62%. 

Planting is also running behind schedule in the state — only 59% of the winter wheat crop is in the ground, USDA said, well back of the five-year average, which sits at 81%. In 2023, Oklahoma had planted 74% of its crop by Oct. 27. 

This means 23% of the state’s winter wheat crop has been planted but is yet to emerge.

Oklahoma’s wheat is not in good condition, USDA said, with 4% rated very poor, 29% poor, 46% fine, 20% good, and 1% in excellent condition.

Over 92% of Oklahoma is suffering from some form of drought, with the northern and southern tips of the state dealing with extreme drought conditions, according to the latest Drought Monitor report.

South Dakota Winter Wheat Progress

With 66% of its winter wheat crop emerging as of Oct. 27, South Dakota is 12 percentage points behind its five-year average of 78%. In 2023, 76% of South Dakota’s winter wheat emerged by Oct. 27. 

Planting progress is right in line with 2023 at 95% complete, just 3 percentage points below the five-year average. 

This means 29% of South Dakota’s winter wheat crop has been planted but is yet to emerge. 

All of South Dakota is dealing with some form of drought stress, according to the latest Drought Monitor report. USDA rated South Dakota’s wheat 3% very poor, 13% poor, 40% fair, 40% good, and 4% in excellent condition.