What Farmers Need to Know Before the October WASDE Report — Shutdown Edition

The October USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report is due Thursday, Oct. 9. However, if the government shutdown continues through next Wednesday, the report may never be released. This is what happened last time a government shutdown impacted a WASDE report in January 2019. 

If the report is released, here is what farmers need to know about the U.S. corn, soybean, and wheat markets, and what Grain Market Insider will be looking for in the updated balance sheets.

The September WASDE report showed U.S. old-crop corn carryout increasing by 20 million bushels, and old-crop soybean stocks unchanged. The new-crop ending stocks estimate for corn decreased by 7 million bushels, soybean ending stocks increased by 10 million bushels, and wheat stocks declined by 25 million bushels. 

If released, the October WASDE report would include objective survey data from the National Agricultural Statistics Service, including harvest yield data, and rely minimally on statistical modeling. It also would reflect updates from the September Grain Stocks report released Tuesday, Sept. 30.

Corn Market Expectations

Over the past month, the USDA’s reported pace of exports has remained strong. Export commitments for the 2025/2026 crop are at 35.3% of their current forecast for the crop year, compared with the five-year average 28.8% by this point in the year.

Corn use for ethanol production for the 2025/2026 crop year has been sluggish compared with the previous two months, and similar to the pace compared with the same period last year. We expect ethanol production to accelerate as harvest progresses.

The September Grain Stocks report showed corn stocks of 1.532 billion bushels compared with expectations near 1.337 billion. 

Grain Market Insider believes there is the possibility that the new-crop corn yield estimate will be reduced in the October WASDE, based on early anecdotal reports. Since 1993, the average downward yield adjustment on the October WASDE report is 1.9 bushels per acre (bpa). On the demand side, Grain Market Insider expects slightly higher exports, lower feed demand, and ethanol production to be close to unchanged. The higher-than-expected September grain stocks estimate should be reflected in higher carry-in for the 2025/2026 crop. With all the possible adjustments, Grain Market Insider does not have an opinion on the direction of ending stocks.

Soybean Market Outlook

The USDA’s export sales commitments of the 2025/2026 crop continue to lag historical averages, with sales at 23.7% of the current estimate, compared with the five-year average 43.4%.

There was no crush report for August due to the government shutdown.

The September Grain Stocks report showed soybean stocks of 316 million bushels compared with expectations near 323 million. 

Grain Market Insider does not expect any material adjustment to new-crop production. The average yield revision on the October WASDE since 1993 is 1 bpa. The lower-than-expected September grain stocks estimate should be reflected in lower carry-in for the 2025/2026 crop. Also, export demand may be adjusted lower due to the continued slow pace of commitments. Overall, we think there is a possibility that ending stocks will increase.

Considerations for the Wheat Market 

Since early July, the USDA’s reported pace of export sales for the 2025/2026 crop year has remained firm. The current sales pace of 57.3% of the September WASDE estimate for the crop year is ahead of the five-year average by 8.6%. Export inspections are also firm at 38.9% of the current estimate compared with the five-year average 34.9%. 

The September Grain Stocks report estimated higher wheat production in most categories. All wheat production is now estimated at 1.985 billion bushels compared with 1.927 billion on the September WASDE report.

Grain Market Insider expects overall production to increase in the October WASDE, in line with the September grain stocks estimates.Also, the higher production may be partially offset by higher export demand.

Historical Patterns and Statistical Perspective

Based on data from 2000–2023, Grain Market Insider’s internal research indicates that market volatility on the October WASDE report day tends to be above average for corn, soybeans, and wheat.

For corn, the October report has a 57% likelihood of triggering a negative market reaction. In outright volatility, this report is tied for third, with an average absolute change of 10¢. The average positive net change on report day is 12¢, while the average negative net change is 9¢.

For soybeans, the October report has a 57% likelihood of triggering a positive market reaction. The report ranks second for overall volatility, with an average absolute change of 20¢. The average rally is 21¢, compared with an average decline of 19¢.

For wheat, the October report has a 71% likelihood of triggering a negative reaction and is the second most volatile. Positive reactions generate an average gain of 16¢, while negative reactions trigger an average 10¢ loss. 

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About the Author: Eric Fransen is the Director of TFM360 Market Analytics at Total Farm Marketing. Eric’s calm, confident, and reasonable approach to farm marketing has been a safe harbor for his clients and the grain team since 2007, making him a welcome person to turn to in an often-unsettled market. Eric enjoys breaking down and explaining complex concepts and strategies to farmers as he helps them make decisions to help improve their bottom lines.