What Farmers Need to Know Before the November WASDE Report

The November USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) has been rescheduled for release from Monday, Nov. 10, to Friday, Nov. 14. This will be the first update to U.S. and global supplies since Sept. 12.

Here is what farmers need to know about the U.S. corn, soybean, and wheat markets, and what Grain Market Insider will be looking for in the updated balance sheets.

Private estimates for the October WASDE had corn ending stocks increasing from 2.110 billion bushels in September to 2.231 billion, soybean ending stocks unchanged at 300 million bushels, and wheat ending stocks increasing from 844 million bushels to 875 million.

Corn Market Expectations

Due to the government shutdown, we have not had updated export commitments for the 2025/2026 crop since Sept. 25. Export inspections have been released since then, and they show total inspections at 13.9% of the USDA’s forecast as of Sept. 12, compared with the five-year average of 8.4% by this point in the year.

Corn use for ethanol production for the 2025/2026 crop year was firm through October. The current pace for the marketing year suggests final usage just below the USDA’s current estimate of 5.6 billion bushels.

Grain Market Insider believes the new crop corn yield estimate may be decreased in the November WASDE report. Based on internal research, since 1993, the average downward yield adjustment on the November WASDE report is 2 bushels per acre (bpa). When yield has been adjusted lower on the October WASDE, the average downward adjustment is 1.9 bpa. Since 1993, there have been eight years when the USDA lowered yields in October and November. The average cumulative lower adjustment for those eight years is 5.1 bpa, with the smallest occurring in 2018 at 2.4 bpa, and the largest occurring in 1993 at 10 bpa.

On the demand side, Grain Market Insider expects slightly higher exports, lower feed demand, and ethanol production to be close to unchanged. With all the possible adjustments, Grain Market Insider does not have an opinion on the direction of ending stocks.

Soybean Market Outlook

Export inspections show 14.6% of the USDA’s forecast as of Sept. 12 have been shipped compared with the five-year average of 18.6%.

There was no crush report for September, due to the government shutdown.

Grain Market Insider believes yield could be adjusted lower on the report next week. Based on internal research, since 1993, the average downward yield adjustment on the November WASDE report is 0.5 bpa. When yield has been adjusted lower on the October WASDE, the average downward adjustment is 0.8 bpa. Since 1993, there have been 10 years when the USDA lowered yields in October and November. The average cumulative lower adjustment for those 10 years is 1.37 bpa, with the smallest occurring in 2011 at 0.5 bpa, and the largest occurring in 2003 at 2.6 bpa.

On the demand side, Grain Market Insider does not have a bias regarding export demand, due to the lack of export sales data and recent trade-related announcements from the Trump administration. In addition, due to the uncertainty, Grain Market Insider does not have a bias regarding the direction of ending stocks.

Considerations for the Wheat Market 

Since early July, the USDA’s reported pace of exports for the 2025/2026 crop year has remained firm. Export inspections are at 46.8% of the current estimate compared with the five-year average of 41.7%.

USDA’s Small Grains 2025 Summary, released Sept. 30, estimated higher wheat production in most categories. All wheat production is now estimated at 1.985 billion bushels compared with 1.927 billion on the September WASDE report.

Grain Market Insider expects overall production to increase in the November WASDE, in line with the small grains report from the end of September. Also, higher production will probably be partially offset by higher export demand. Overall ending stocks are likely to increase slightly.

Historical Patterns and Statistical Perspective

Based on data from 2000–2023, Grain Market Insider’s internal research indicates that market volatility on the November WASDE report day tends to be below average for corn, average for soybeans, and below average for wheat.

For corn, the November report has a 55% likelihood of triggering a positive market reaction. In outright volatility, this report ranks eighth, with an average absolute change of 6¢.

For soybeans, the November report has a 64% likelihood of triggering a negative market reaction, which is the highest of all reports. The report ranks fifth for overall volatility, with an average absolute change of 16¢. The average rally is 25¢, compared with an average decline of 11¢.

For wheat, the November report has a 59% likelihood of triggering a negative reaction, and is one of the least volatile. Positive reactions generate an average gain of 7¢, while negative reactions trigger an average 8¢ decline. 

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About the Author: Eric Fransen is the Director of TFM360 Market Analytics at Total Farm Marketing. Eric’s calm, confident, and reasonable approach to farm marketing has been a safe harbor for his clients and the grain team since 2007, making him a welcome person to turn to in an often-unsettled market. Eric enjoys breaking down and explaining complex concepts and strategies to farmers as he helps them make decisions to help improve their bottom lines.