:max_bytes(150000):strip_icc()/100126367_farm_grain_bin_silo-793640a5a77244ed8dc923ffaa2d5811.jpg "What Farmers Need to Know Before the December WASDE Report")
The December USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report is scheduled for release on Tuesday, Dec. 9. Historically, there are no production adjustments in this report, only demand adjustments.
Here is what farmers need to know about the U.S. corn, soybean, and wheat markets, and what Grain Market Insider will be looking for in the updated balance sheets.
The November WASDE had corn ending stocks increasing from 2.11 billion bushels in September to 2.154 billion, soybean ending stocks decreasing from 300 million bushels to 290 million, and wheat ending stocks increasing from 844 million bushels to 901 million.
Corn Market Expectations
Due to the government shutdown, export commitment data is still not current, so Grain Market Insider is not considering that in its estimates. Export inspections have been released throughout the shutdown and are the best guides at this time to estimate export demand. As of Dec. 1, reports show total inspections at 24.3% of the USDA’s current forecast, compared with the five-year average of 14.1% by this point in the year.
Corn use for ethanol production for the 2025/2026 crop year has been strong six of the past seven weeks. The current pace for the marketing year suggests final usage in line with the USDA’s current estimate of 5.6 billion bushels.
Grain Market Insider expects an increase in export demand and possibly a lower feed estimate in the December report. Ethanol production will likely be unchanged. Grain Market Insider sees the possibility for ending stocks to be unchanged to slightly lower.
Soybean Market Outlook
The pace of export shipments for soybeans remains sluggish. Export inspections show that 26.7% of the USDA’s forecast as of Nov. 14 have been shipped, compared with the five-year average of 39.6%.
The USDA did not release a crush report for the month of October. On Nov. 17, the National Oilseed Processors Association released their monthly soybean crush report for the month of October; it showed that a record 227.647 million bushels were crushed by their members, which accounts for approximately 99% of all soybeans processed in the U.S. This was up almost 14%, compared with October 2024. The previous record for any month was 206.604 million bushels in December 2024.
Grain Market Insider sees the possibility that soybean crush will be increased and exports decreased in the December WASDE report, leaving ending stocks near unchanged.
Considerations for the Wheat Market
Since early July, the USDA’s reported pace of exports for the 2025/2026 crop year has remained firm. Export inspections are at 54% of the current estimate, compared with the five-year average of 47.8%.
Grain Market Insider expects an increase in export demand in the December WASDE report, resulting in lower ending stocks.
Historical Patterns and Statistical Perspective
Based on data from 2000–2023, Grain Market Insider’s internal research indicates that market volatility on the December WASDE report day tends to be below average for corn, soybeans, and wheat.
For corn, the December report has a 59% chance of triggering a positive market reaction. In outright volatility, this report ranks 12th, with an average absolute change of only 3¢.
For soybeans, the December report has a 50% likelihood of triggering a positive or negative market reaction. The report ranks 10th for overall volatility, with an average absolute change of 8¢. The average bounce is 7¢, compared with an average decline of 9¢.
For wheat, the December report has a 68% likelihood of triggering a negative reaction and is one of the least volatile. In outright volatility, this report ranks 11th, with an average absolute change of 8¢.
Disclaimer: The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Individuals acting on this information are responsible for their own actions. Commodity trading may not be suitable for all recipients of this report. Futures and options trading involves significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. Examples of seasonal price moves or extreme market conditions are not meant to imply that such moves or conditions are common occurrences or likely to occur. Futures prices have already factored in the seasonal aspects of supply and demand. No representation is being made that scenario planning, strategy, or discipline will guarantee success or profits. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell, or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing. Total Farm Marketing and TFM refer to Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., Stewart-Peterson Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of the National Futures Association. SP Risk Services, LLC is an insurance agency and an equal-opportunity provider. Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. A customer may have relationships with all three companies. SP Risk Services LLC and Stewart-Peterson Inc. are wholly owned by Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. Unless otherwise noted, services referenced are services of Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. Presented for solicitation.
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About the Author: Eric Fransen is the Director of TFM360 Market Analytics at Total Farm Marketing. Eric’s calm, confident, and reasonable approach to farm marketing has been a safe harbor for his clients and the grain team since 2007, making him a welcome person to turn to in an often-unsettled market. Eric enjoys breaking down and explaining complex concepts and strategies to farmers as he helps them make decisions to help improve their bottom lines.
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