Today USDA released the latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report. U.S. corn and wheat ending stocks were lowered month-over-month.
2023/2024 U.S. ending stocks
The WASDE report pegged the U.S. 2023/2024 corn ending stocks at 2.131 billion bushels vs. the trade’s estimate of 2.176 billion and last month’s estimate of 2.156 billion bushels.
For soybeans, the U.S. ending stocks were pegged at 245 million bushels vs. the trade’s expectation of 246 million bushels. Last month’s estimate was also 245 million bushels.
USDA pegged the U.S. wheat ending stocks at 659 million bushels, below the trade’s expectation of 680 and last month’s estimate of 684 million bushels.
2023/2024 World ending stocks
USDA pegged world corn ending stocks for 2023/2024 at 315.2 million metric tons (mmt) vs. the trade’s expectation of 312.9 mmt. Last month USDA pegged ending stocks at 315 mmt.
For soybeans, world ending stocks are estimated at 114.2 mmt vs. the trade’s expectation of 112.3 mmt. Last month’s estimate was for 114.5 mmt.
For wheat, USDA pegged world ending stocks at 258.2 mmt. This is in line with the trade’s expectation but below last month’s estimate of 258.7.
South America Production
USDA is projecting Brazil corn production for 2023/2024 to be 129 mmt. Argentina’s corn production is estimated at 55 mmt. Both projections reflect no change from last month.
For soybeans, USDA is forecasting Brazil to produce 161 mmt, down from 163 mmt last month. Argentina is expected to produce 48 mmt, reflecting no change from the month before.
2023/2024 U.S. Crop Production
USDA is estimating 2023 corn yield to be 174.9 bushels per acre to produce 15.234 billion bushels. Soybean yield is pegged at 49.9 bushels per acre to produce 4.129 billion bushels. Both corn and soybean projects match last month’s estimates and the trade’s expectations.
More from USDA
“This month’s 2023/2024 U.S. corn outlook is for higher exports and lower ending stocks,” says USDA in the report. “Exports are raised 25 million bushels to 2.1 billion reflecting the pace of sales and shipments to date. With no other use changes, corn ending stocks are reduced 25 million bushels to 2.1 billion.”
Concerning wheat ending stocks USDA says “The outlook for 2023/2024 U.S. wheat this month is for unchanged supplies and domestic use, higher exports, and reduced ending stocks. Exports are raised 25 million bushels to 725 million on several large recent export sales of soft red winter (SRW) wheat to China. SRW exports are raised 30 million bushels to 175 million, the largest SRW exports since 2013/2014. White wheat exports are lowered five million bushels to 155 million on a slow pace of sales and shipments. Projected all wheat ending stocks are reduced by 25 million bushels to 659 million, still up 13% from last year.”
Concerning soybeans, USDA notes U.S. supply and demand estimates are unchanged from last month.
Jeremy McCann, account manager with Farmer’s Keeper: “Immediately post report this news is leaving the market trading off of the highs, but we’re still trading in the green on the day. We expected this report to be inconsequential like November’s report and it seems to be leaning bearish. The major market movers remain the same. First and foremost being Brazilian weather, followed by export sales, and finally domestic demand.”
Al Kluis, managing director of Kluis Commodity Advisors: “The big surprise today is the Brazilian soybean crop was only reduced by 2 mmt and the corn crop wasn’t reduced at all. I would expect to see the cron crop reduced next month because I think USDA may be off by as much as 10 mmt. Brazil’s own agricultural agency CONAB just yesterday set their estimate at 118 mmt for corn. Brazil’s soybean crop being estimated over 160 mmt and corn being unchanged is negative for the market. Global corn and soybean ending stocks also came in 2 to 3 million metric tons higher than I expected.”