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Today, USDA released the February 2025 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report.
2024/2025 U.S. Ending Stocks
USDA defied expectations for 2024/2025 U.S. corn, soybean, and wheat ending stocks. Corn and soybeans were held steady when the average trade expectation was for lower ending stocks. Concerning wheat, USDA went lower when the average trade expectation was for higher ending stocks.
| 2024/2025 U.S. Ending Stocks Estimates (Bushels) | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| February | Trade Expectations | January | |
| Corn | 1.540 billion | 1.521 billion | 1.540 billion |
| Soybeans | 380 million | 376 million | 380 million |
| Wheat | 794 million | 801 million | 798 million |
2024/2025 Global Ending Stocks
For 2024/2025 global ending stocks, USDA pegged corn, soybeans, and wheat lower than the average trade expectations.
| 2024/2025 Global Ending Stocks Estimates (Million Metric Tons) | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| February | Trade Expectations | January | |
| Corn | 290.3 | 292.2 | 293.3 |
| Soybeans | 124.3 | 128.2 | 128.4 |
| Wheat | 257.6 | 258.6 | 258.8 |
2024/2025 Argentina and Brazil Crop Production
USDA pegged its 2024/2025 Argentina corn production estimate lower month-over-month but not as low as the average trade expectation. For the soybean estimate, USDA went lower than expected.
For Brazil, USDA went lower than the average trade expectation for corn production. For Brazil soybean production, the average trade expectation was for an increase but USDA held the estimate steady.
| Argentina Production (Million Metric Tons) | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| February | Trade Expectations | January | |
| Corn | 50 | 49.1 | 51 |
| Soybeans | 49 | 50.2 | 52 |
| Brazil Production (Million Metric Tons) | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| February | Trade Expectations | January | |
| Corn | 126 | 126.7 | 127 |
| Soybeans | 169 | 170.2 | 169 |
More From USDA
The 2024/2025 supply and demand balance sheets for U.S. corn and soybeans were unchanged month-over-month.
Concerning wheat, USDA said in the report: “The 2024/2025 U.S. wheat supply and demand outlook is for slightly higher domestic use that leads to lower ending stocks. Food use is raised 4 million bushels to 970 million, as wheat flour grind during the October–December quarter was up 2% from last year as indicated in the NASS [National Agricultural Statistics Service] Flour Milling Products report. Projected ending stocks decrease 4 million bushels to 794 million but are 14% above last year.”
Trade Reaction
Jeremy McCann, account manager, Farmer’s Keeper: “I was surprised to see the USDA did not change domestic ending stocks for corn or soybeans whatsoever while they did decide to lower wheat. We have been posting good export demand — particularly for corn recently — so no decrease is what caught me (and the market) off guard. Furthermore, the USDA lowered the Argentinian soybean crop by 1.5 million metric tons (mmt), the Argentinian corn crop by 1 mmt, and finally Brazil’s corn crop by 1 mmt. These two factors seem to be offsetting each other on the board currently.
“The final numbers to note are the USDA’s revisions to China’s imports. Corn imports were cut by 3 mmt to 10 mmt, and wheat imports were cut by 2.5 mmt to 8 mmt. Those revisions have seemingly taken the reins on the market post report, as those are pretty sizable cuts. It seems as though the USDA is continuing to factor in potential tariffs to domestic demand.”
Naomi Blohm, senior market advisor, Total Farm Marketing: “True to tradition, the February USDA report was a nonevent…. Sideways trade is likely ahead, as the fundamentals for U.S. corn are quite friendly thanks to the surprisingly friendly January WASDE report, which should hold prices steady for a few weeks. Traders will likely now look to geo-politics and South American weather for additional news to incentivize prices.”
Note: Trade expectations are sourced from Bloomberg.
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