The U.S. cattle herd started 2026 a little smaller than a year ago, and the latest U.S. Department of Agriculture numbers suggest any broad-based rebuild is still more talk than reality.
As of Jan. 1, 2026, the United States had 86.2 million head of cattle and calves on farms and ranches, according to the USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service. That total is slightly below Jan. 1, 2025, continuing the industry’s multi-year contraction.
NASS’ annual Cattle report includes several figures producers watch closely for clues about supply, replacement intentions, and what the next 12–24 months could look like for feeders and fats:
- Total cattle and calves: 86.2 million head (Jan. 1, 2026)
- All cows and heifers that have calved: 37.2 million head
- Beef cows: 27.6 million head (down 1% year-over-year)
- Milk cows: 9.57 million head (up from last year)
- 2025 calf crop: 32.9 million head (down from the prior year)
- Cattle on feed: 13.8 million head (down from 2025)
The total inventory is being widely described as the smallest U.S. herd since 1951.
What it signals about expansion
The “will we rebuild?” question usually comes down to a few things: moisture and forage, producer confidence, and whether operations are willing to hold back heifers instead of cashing in at historically strong prices.
This year’s report includes a modest increase in beef replacement heifers (reported at 4.71 million head), but the broader picture still points to a slow start rather than a nationwide push into expansion. With beef cows down 1 percent and the calf crop smaller, near-term feeder supplies remain constrained — a fundamental tailwind for cattle prices, assuming demand holds.
On the feeding side, NASS put cattle and calves on feed at 13.8 million head on Jan. 1, 2026 — 3 percent below the previous year. In practical terms, a smaller on-feed number today can translate into tighter fed cattle marketings down the road, depending on placement pace and carcass weights.
To build the report, NASS surveyed roughly 35,000 operators across the country during the first half of January, collecting inventories as of Jan. 1, 2026, plus the full-year 2025 calf crop via internet, mail, phone, and in-person interviews.
Why it matters for producers right now
For cow-calf operators, the report reinforces what many already feel on the ground: supplies are tight, and markets are still paying aggressively for calves and bred females — but rebuilding takes time. Even if more producers begin retaining heifers this spring, it typically takes multiple years before that decision shows up as materially larger beef production.
For stocker and feedlot operators, fewer calves on the front end and a smaller on-feed inventory can keep competition elevated for available feeder cattle, particularly in regions where forage conditions support additional grazing days.
If expansion is coming, the data suggests it’s likely to be slow and uneven, shaped less by headline prices and more by forage conditions, replacement economics, and producers’ appetite for risk.
