Trump Confirms Mexico, Canada 25% Tariffs Coming Saturday

By Ryan Hanrahan

The Hill’s Brett Samuels reported that “President Trump on Thursday said he plans to follow through on Saturday on his threat to impose 25% tariffs on goods from Mexico and Canada.”

“‘We’ll be announcing the tariffs on Canada and Mexico for a number of reasons,’ Trump told reporters in the Oval Office. He cited the influx of migrants at the southern border, the flow of fentanyl into the United States, and the trade deficit the U.S. has with its neighbors,” Samuels reported. “‘I’ll be putting the tariff of 25% on Canada and Mexico, and we will really have to do that because we have very big deficits with those countries,’ he said. ‘Those tariffs may or may not rise with time.’”

“The action would make good on a threat Trump first made in the final days of the 2024 campaign, when he threatened to impose a tariff of 25% on all imports from Mexico, which is the top trade partner with the U.S., unless the Mexican government curbed the flow of migrants at the southern border. He later expanded that threat to include Canada and China,” Samuels reported. “Mexico and Canada are two of the top trading partners with the United States, and experts have warned that tariffs could lead to increased prices for American consumers for certain goods.”

Tariff Implementation Details Remain Sparse

Reuters’ David Lawder and Andrea Shalal reported Friday morning that “industry groups were furiously seeking any scrap of information on how Trump plans to implement the tariffs — whether he would impose the full 25% with immediate effect, or announce them and delay their implementation to allow some time for negotiations over steps that the countries could take.”

“Even immediate imposition would require two to three weeks of public notice before U.S. Customs and Border Protection could begin collections, based on past tariff actions,” Lawder and Shalal reported. “…Two sources familiar with the matter said that Trump was expected to invoke the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) as the legal basis for the tariffs, declaring a national emergency over fentanyl overdoses that killed nearly 75,000 Americans in 2023 and illegal immigration.”

“The statute enacted in 1977 and modified after the 9/11 attacks in 2001 gives the president broad powers to impose economic sanctions in a crisis,” Lawder and Shalal reported. “Among the trade law tools at Trump’s disposal, IEEPA would give him the fastest path to imposing broad tariffs, as others require lengthy investigations by the Commerce Department or the U.S. Trade Representative’s office.”

Fertilizer, Avocados, and More Could Become More Expensive in the US

Agri-Pulse’s Oliver Ward reported Thursday that “with spring fast approaching and U.S. crop acreages up, U.S. buyers will likely bear the brunt of the costs of any new tariffs on fertilizers, at least in the short run, analysts tell Agri-Pulse, as some manufacturers are already eying price hikes.”

“The U.S. imports more than 90% of its annual potash fertilizer demand, mostly from Canada, according to the Energy Department, leaving farmers particularly sensitive to any new costs,” Ward reported. “Trump’s pick for commerce secretary told lawmakers this week that the tariffs are designed to spur the U.S.’ neighbors into taking firmer measures to stem the flow of illegal migrants and drugs, and that both could still avoid tariffs on Saturday. But analysts say some potash fertilizer manufacturers aren’t waiting for the president to make his move to hike prices.”

“‘We’ve had a couple manufacturers talk about a $25 a ton increase,’ Josh Linville, vice president of fertilizer at StoneX, told Agri-Pulse. Higher grain prices, he said, as well as increased demand for potash is partly to blame,” Ward reported. “…At least one Canadian potash producer doesn’t want to take the risk though, according to Doug Wright, a fertilizer consultant. Wright told Agri-Pulse that Nutrien — the world’s largest potash producer headquartered in Saskatchewan, Canada — was not taking U.S. potash orders in recent weeks that were due for delivery past Saturday for any volumes above what would already be in the country by then.”

In addition, Bloomberg’s Maya Averbuch, Michael Hirtzer, and Leslie Patton reported Thursday that “Americans’ love of guacamole is about to be put to the test. Mexico supplies upwards of 90% of the avocados Americans eat, and President Donald Trump is likely to make them more expensive with his plan to slap 25% tariffs on Mexican imports beginning on Saturday.”

“Outside of Mexico, there are only a few options for importing avocados. Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. has sourced from other countries including Colombia and the Dominican Republic,” Averbuch, Hirtzer and Patton reported. “Mariano’s, a grocery chain owned by Kroger Co., gets some of the fruit from Chile and Peru, according to Michael Marx, the company’s division president.”

Retaliatory Tariffs Being Prepared by Mexico and Canada

Reuters’ Diego Oré reported Wednesday that “in what Mexico sees as the unlikely event that the U.S. does implement tariffs against its largest trading partner on Feb. 1, Mexico is prepared to impose retaliatory tariffs on the United States, according to two sources familiar with the matter.”

“Retaliatory tariffs would initially exempt the automotive industry, the sources said, sparing what has become Mexico’s most important manufacturing sector and one that is closely integrated with the United States,” Oré reported. “‘Mexico is ready to apply retaliatory tariffs of 5%, 10%, 20%,’ said one of the sources, a Mexican government official. ‘However, we are still in constant dialogue because the effects would hit both countries, jobs on both sides of the border will be put at risk,’ the sources added.”

“The retaliatory tariffs would most likely be on pork products, cheese, apples, grapes, potatoes, cranberries, and Bourbon whiskey, as well as manufactured steel and aluminum, the sources said,” Oré reported. “‘Mexico has chosen these products because they have a big impact on regions that voted overwhelmingly for Trump,‘ said the second source, who has knowledge of the government plans.”

In addition, Reuters’ Lawder and Shalal reported that “Canada has drawn up detailed targets for immediate tariff retaliation, including duties on orange juice from Florida, Trump’s adopted home state, a source familiar with the plan said. Canada has a broader list of targets that could reach C$150 billion worth of U.S. imports, but would hold public consultations before acting, the source said. Canada’s energy and national resources minister, Jonathan Wilkinson, said Canada’s response would focus on products that hurt Americans more than Canadians.”

Trump Confirms Mexico, Canada 25% Tariffs Coming Saturday was originally published by Farmdoc.